000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270340
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Nov 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure is surging down
eastern Mexico towards the Gulf of Tehuantepec area in the wake
of a Gulf of Mexico cold front. The pressure gradient between 
the high pressure and lower pressure in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
area will support minimal north to northeast gale force winds 
through Tue morning. Seas will peak around 12 ft tonight.
A recent altimeter data pass indicated seas up to 9 ft 
downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 15N96W. Another
round of gale-force winds is possible Sun night through Mon 
night. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 
07N90W to 08N100W to 10N115W to 11N126W. ITCZ extends from
11N126W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 60 nm north of the trough between 114W-117W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details 
on a gale-force northerly gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

Elsewhere, fresh northwest winds are in the northern Gulf of 
California with seas to 5 ft. Light and variable winds are over 
the rest of the Gulf, except for gentle northwest winds over the 
central Gulf. An area of fresh to strong northwest to north winds
are over the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Mazatlan. Seas 
are 4-6 ft offshore of the Baja California Peninsula mainly due 
to a northwest swell, and 3-5 ft elsewhere west-northwest of the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec area.

A recent altimeter data pass indicated seas up to 9 ft downstream
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 15N96W.

For the forecast, gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will continue into early Sat, then fresh to strong 
through Sun. Another round of gale-force winds is possible Sun 
night through Mon night. Strong north winds over the northern 
Gulf of California and also near the entrance of the Gulf will 
diminish this evening. Fresh winds will develop near Cabo 
Corrientes Sun through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh northeast winds prevail over and downstream 
the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds continue south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas across the area are in the 3-5 ft 
range due to a south to southwest across the offshore waters in 
south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, fresh northeast winds will pulse to strong in 
the Papagayo region beginning Sat night. Gentle to moderate 
winds will prevail elsewhere through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure 
gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of about 120W.
Seas are 6-8 ft across this area. The monsoon trough stretches 
northward to near 14N at 116W with an active area of convection 
as is described above. Fresh to near gale-force winds are near 
the monsoon trough in this area, with seas of 7-8 ft. Gentle to 
moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas of 
mainly 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the area of fresh to near gale-force winds near
the monsoon trough will propagate east-northeast toward the
Revillagigedo Islands through early Sat while diminishing. 
Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere through 
early next week, except for locally and occasionally fresh speeds
in the west-central waters north of the ITCZ. Little change in 
seas is forecast.
 
$$
Aguirre