000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261941
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Nov 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1940 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure is surging down
eastern Mexico towards the Gulf of Tehuantepec area ahead of a
cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec area will support minimal northerly gale-force 
winds through Tue morning. Seas will peak around 12 ft tonight. 
Looking ahead, another round of gale-force winds is possible Sun 
night through Mon night. Please see the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Colombia near
07N77W to across Panama and Costa Rica exiting near the Papagayo
region near 11N86W to 07N102W to 14N116W to 09N125W. The ITCZ 
extends from 09N125W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 21N between 108W
and 115W, and from 07N to 09N between 125W and 140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 78W and 86W,
from 11N to 13N between 88W and 90W, from 06N to 09N between 107W
and 110W, and from 11N to 13N between 114W and 116W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details 
on a gale-force northerly gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

Elsewhere, Strong NW-N winds are in the northern Gulf of
California with seas to around 8 ft. Moderate to fresh NW-N 
winds prevail in the central Gulf, while a surge of fresh to
strong NW-N winds are developing in the southern Gulf near the
entrance. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail across the open 
waters offshore of the Baja California Peninsula. Light to 
gentle variable winds prevail from west-northwest of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec area to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 4 to 6
ft offshore of the Baja California Peninsula and 3 to 5 ft 
elsewhere west-northwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec area.

For the forecast, gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will prevail into early Sat, then fresh to strong 
through Sun. Another round of gale-force winds is possible Sun 
night through Mon night. Strong north winds over the northern 
Gulf of California and also near the entrance of the Gulf will 
diminish this evening. Fresh winds will develop near Cabo 
Corrientes Sun through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh northeast winds prevail over and downstream 
the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds continue south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas across the area are in the 3 to 5 ft 
range across the offshore waters in south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds will pulse to strong in the 
Papagayo region beginning Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail elsewhere through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure 
gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of about 120W.
Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. The monsoon trough 
stretches northward to near 14N at 116W with an active area of 
convection as is described above. Fresh to near gale-force winds
are near the monsoon trough in this area, with seas of 7 to 8 
ft. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion 
waters. Seas of mainly 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the area of fresh to near gale-force winds near
the monsoon trough will propagate east-northeast toward the
Revillagigedo Islands through early Sat while diminishing. 
Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere through 
early next week, locally and occasionally fresh in the west-
central waters north of the ITCZ. Little change in seas is 
forecast.
 
$$
Lewitsky