000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261455
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Nov 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1420 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure is surging down
eastern Mexico towards the Gulf of Tehuantepec area ahead of a
cold front moving through the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the Gulf
of Tehuantepec area is supporting minimal northerly gale-force 
winds this morning through early Tue morning. Seas will peak 
around 11 ft tonight. Looking ahead, another round of gale-force
winds is possible Sun night through Mon night. Please see the 
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Colombia near
08N75W to across Panama and Costa Rica exiting near the Papagayo
region at 10N86W to 07N100W to 14N115W to 12N121W. The ITCZ
extends from 12N121W to 09N130W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 20N between
110W and 118W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to
10N between 77W and 87W, from 06N to 09N between 90W and 95W,
from 07N to 10N between 107W and 110W, and from 07N to 10N
between 120W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details 
on a gale-force northerly gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

Elsewhere, Strong NW-N winds are in the northern Gulf of
California with seas to around 8 ft. Moderate NW-N winds prevail
in the central and southern Gulf of California, locally fresh in
the central Gulf. Gentle to moderate NW-N winds prevail across 
the open waters from near Cabo Corrientes northward offshore of 
the Baja California Peninsula. Light to gentle variable winds
prevail from west-northwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec area to
offshore of Michoacan. Seas are 4 to 6 ft offshore of the Baja
California Peninsula and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere west-northwest of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec area.

For the forecast, gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will prevail into early Sat, then fresh to strong 
through Sun. Another round of gale-force winds is possible Sun 
night through Mon night. Strong north winds over the northern 
Gulf of California will diminish this evening. Fresh winds will 
develop near Cabo Corrientes Sun through Mon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh northeast winds prevail over and downstream the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough, except moderate in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to
moderate winds continue south of the monsoon trough. Seas across
the area are in the 3 to 5 ft range across the offshore waters 
in south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds will pulse to strong in the 
Papagayo region beginning Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail elsewhere through early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure 
gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of about 120W.
Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. The monsoon trough 
stretches northward to near 14N at 116W with an active area of 
convection as is described above. Fresh to near gale-force N-NE 
winds are west of the monsoon trough in this area, with seas of 8
to 9 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the 
discussion waters. Seas of mainly 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the area of fresh to near gale-force winds near
the monsoon trough will propagate east-northeast toward the
Revillagigedo Islands through early Sat while diminishing. 
Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere through 
early next week, locally and occasionally fresh in the west-
central waters north of the ITCZ. Little change in seas is 
forecast.
 
$$
Lewitsky