000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260926
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Nov 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure that will build in the wake of a Gulf of Mexico 
cold and lower pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon
trough will bring the next gale-force gap wind event to the Gulf
of Tehuantepec region beginning today. The gale-force winds are 
expected to continue through early on Sat before diminishing. 
Winds may once again increase to gale-force Sun night into early 
next week. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from near the coast of northwestern
Colombia to 09N84W to 08N100W to 14N113W and to 11N122W, where 
latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the 
ITCZ to 08N130W and to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough 
between 114W-118W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
south of the trough between 79W-83W, also between 118W-123W and 
within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 123W-128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details 
on a gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Fresh to strong winds north winds are over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, while strong northwest to north winds are 
over the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds 
are noted west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds continue
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft in south swell over the open 
waters off Mexico, except 7-8 ft within 120 nm of the coast
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Over the northern Gulf of 
California, seas the earlier 7-10 ft seas have subsided to
6-8 ft. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central part of 
the Gulf, and 1-3 ft over the remainder of the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, strong winds over the northern Gulf of 
California will diminish by late Fri night. A gale-force gap 
wind event will begin in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today and 
continue into early Saturday. Strong northerly winds will 
develop again over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun, and possibly 
reach gale- force Sun night into early next week. Thereafter, 
strong to near gale-force north to northeast winds will then 
remain over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh northeast winds prevail over and downstream 
the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds continue south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas across the area are in the 3-4 ft 
range in south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the
Papagayo region will pulse to fresh to strong speeds beginning on
Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest
of the area for the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure 
gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of about 120W.
A trough is analyzed from near 17N118W to 12N119W. This feature 
is being sustained by a pretty pronounced upper-level low that is
observed to its northwest near 18N123W. An overnight ASCAT pass
depicted fresh to strong northeast to east winds within 210 nm 
east of the trough and strong to near gale-force northeast winds
within 120 nm west of the trough. A recent altimeter data pass 
shows seas to 8 ft within 150 nm east of the trough. Slighter
higher seas of 9 ft are closer to the trough. Satellite imagery 
shows scattered moderate convection within 120 nm east of the 
trough. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the 
discussion waters. Seas of 6-8 ft remain in the area of fresh 
winds as well as over the northern waters north of 28N between 
120W-130W. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will shift eastward 
to southwest of the Baja California through Sat while weakening.
Its associated fresh to strong winds will diminish to moderate 
to fresh speeds at that time, and seas with it will lower
to less than 8 ft. Elsewhere, winds will diminish across the 
waters north of the ITCZ this weekend as the pressure gradient 
slackens some.
 
$$
Aguirre