000
AXPZ20 KNHC 260345
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Nov 26 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery
through 0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front over the NW 
Gulf of Mexico will reach the SW Gulf by early Fri evening.
The pressure gradient between high pressure that will build in 
the wake of the front and lower pressure within the eastern north
Pacific monsoon trough will bring the next gale-force gap wind 
event to the Gulf of Tehuantepec region beginning on Fri. The 
gale-force winds are expected to continue through early on Sat 
before diminishing. Winds may once again increase to gale-force 
Sun night into early next week. Please see the latest NWS High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia to 
09N84W to 08N97W, where latest scatterometer data indicates
that it transitions to the ITCZ to 11N106W to 14N115W. It resumes 
at 13N121W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is
within30 nm north of the ITCZ between 108W-110W, also within 30 
nm south of the ITCZ between 119W-120W and within 30 nm north of 
the trough between 137W-140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details 
on an upcoming gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

Fresh to strong winds north winds are over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec, while strong northwest to north winds are 
over the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds 
are noted west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds continue
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft in south swell over the open 
waters off Mexico, except to around 7 ft over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Over the northern Gulf of California, seas
have build to 7-10 ft with the strong winds there. Seas 
are in the 4-6 ft range over the central part of the Gulf,
and 1-3 ft over the remainder of the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, strong winds over the northern Gulf of 
California will diminish by late Fri night. A gale- force gap 
wind event is expected to begin in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri 
night into early Saturday. Strong northerly winds will develop
again over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun, and possibly reach 
gale-force Sun night into early next week. Thereafter, strong to
near gale-force north to northeast winds will then remain over 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh northeast winds prevail over and downstream 
the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of 
the monsoon trough. Seas across the area are in the 3-4 ft range
in south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the
Papagayo region will pulse to fresh to strong speeds beginning on
Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest
of the area for the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure 
gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of about 
120W. A trough is analyzed from near 15N118W to 10N120W. This 
feature is being sustained by a pretty pronounced upper-level
low that is observed to its northwest near 19N123W. Fresh to 
strong northeast to east winds along with seas of 8-9 ft are 
from 14N to 15N between 117W-120W. Satellite imagery shows 
scattered moderate convection within 120 nm east of the trough. 
Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion 
waters. Seas of 6-8 ft remain in the area of fresh winds as well 
as over the northern waters north of 28N between 120W-130W. Seas 
of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will shift eastward 
to southwest of the Baja California through Sat while weakening.
Its associated fresh to strong winds will diminish to moderate 
to fresh speeds at that time, and seas with it will lower
to less than 8 ft. Elsewhere, winds will diminish across the 
waters north of the ITCZ this weekend as the pressure gradient 
slackens some.
 
$$
Aguirre