000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252153
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Nov 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...A cold front expected to 
enter the Gulf of Mexico this afternoon will reach the SW Gulf 
by Friday. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. The
pressure gradient between this building high pressure and lower 
pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will 
bring the next gale-force gap wind event over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec starting Fri night. Winds will increase to gale 
force Friday evening and continue through early Saturday before 
diminishing. Winds may once again increase to gale-force Late Sun
night into early next week. Please see the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N110W to 08N128W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N128W and beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 107W and 
124W, and along the ITCZ from 05N to 11N between 132W and 140W. 
N of the monsoon trough, a surface trough extends from 18N117W
to 12N119W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted in the proximity of the trough and the monsoon trough
from 10n to 12N between 116W to 122W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see above for more on the upcoming gale-force gap wind 
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec as
well as the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds
are noted west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the open waters off
Mexico, except to 6 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Over the
northern Gulf of California, seas are in the 4-6 ft range and 
1-3 ft over the remainder of the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, strong winds over the northern Gulf of 
California will continue to spread into the central Gulf today 
through Fri before beginning to diminish by Fri afternoon. A 
gale-force gap wind event is expected to begin in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec Fri night into early Saturday. Northerly winds begin 
to increase again Monday in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with another 
gap wind event possible early next week. Fresh to strong will 
remain through the middle of the week in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.


OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail over and downstream the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas across the area are in the 3 to 4 ft range 
in south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the
Papagayo region will pulse to fresh to strong speeds Fri and 
into the weekend, then again through the middle of the week. 
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the area
for the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure 
gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W. N of 
the monsoon trough, a surface trough is analyzed extending from 
17N118W to 11N120W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the trough and in the proximity of the trough to the monsoon 
trough. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the 
discussion waters. Seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail in the area of fresh
winds as well as over the northern waters north of 28N between 
120W and 130W. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the northerly swell between 120W and 130W will
subside today. Otherwise, little change is forecast through the 
end of the week. Winds will diminish across the waters north of 
the ITCZ this weekend as the pressure gradient loosens.
 
$$
Torres