000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250853
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Nov 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...A cold front will move across
the SW Gulf of Mexico Friday into Saturday. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front. The pressure gradient between
this building high pressure and lower pressure within the eastern
north Pacific monsoon trough will bring the next gale- force gap
wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase to
gale force Friday evening and continue through early Saturday
before diminishing. Winds may once again increase to gale- force
Late Sun night into early next week. Please see the latest NWS 
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N102W to 12N118W to 
09N128W. The ITCZ continues from 09N128W to 08N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 103W and 
130W, and from 08N to 10N between 135W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see above for more on the upcoming gale- force gap wind
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec as
well as the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds
are noted west of Baja California. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the open waters off
Mexico, except to 6 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Over the
northern Gulf of California, seas are in the 3-5 ft range and 
1-3 ft over the remainder of the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, strong winds over the northern Gulf of 
California will spread to the central Gulf through Fri before 
beginning to diminish Fri afternoon. A gale-force gap wind event 
is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night into early 
Saturday. Another gap wind event is possible early next week in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail over and downstream the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas across the area are in the 3 to 5 ft range 
in south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the
Papagayo region will pulse to strong speeds this morning, then 
again Sat and Sun. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across 
the rest of the area for the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressures 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh 
northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west 
of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the 
discussion waters. Seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail in the area of 
fresh winds as well as over the northern waters north of 28N
between 120W and 130W. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the northerly swell between 120W and 130W will
subside today. Otherwise, little change is forecast through the 
end of the week. Winds will diminish across the waters north of 
the ITCZ this weekend as the pressure gradient loosens.
 
$$
AL