000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250111
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Nov 25 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...A cold front will move across
the SW Gulf of Mexico Friday into Saturday. High pressure will
build in the wake of the front. The pressure gradient between
this building high pressure and lower pressure within the eastern
north Pacific monsoon trough will bring the next gale- force gap
wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds will increase to
gale force Friday evening and continue through early Saturday
before diminishing. Winds may once again increase to gale- force
Late Sun night into early next week. Please see the latest NWS 
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N85W to 07N96W to 10N116W to
09N127W. The ITCZ continues from 09N127W to 08N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 108W and
132W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see above for more on the upcoming gale- force gap wind
event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A
ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail west of Baja California as well as the
northern Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the open waters off
Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, strong winds will develop over the northern 
Gulf of California tonight with seas building to around 8 ft. 
Winds and seas will spread to the central Gulf through Fri before
beginning to diminish Fri afternoon. A gale-force gap wind event
is expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night into early 
Saturday. Another gap wind event is possible early next week in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail over and downstream the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas across the area are in the 3 to 5 ft range 
in south to southwest swell, except to 6 ft in the Gulf of
Papagayo.

For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo 
region will pulse to strong speeds during the early morning hours
today and Thu, then again this weekend. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail across the rest of the area for the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressures 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh 
northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west 
of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the 
discussion waters. Seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail in the area of 
fresh winds, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, northerly swell will spread south of 30N 
between 120W and 130W tonight through Thu, building seas to 
around 8 ft north of 27N. Otherwise, little change is forecast 
through the end of the week. Winds will diminish across the 
waters north of the ITCZ this weekend as the pressure gradient 
loosens.
 
$$
AL