000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242209
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Nov 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2150 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...A cold front will move across
the SW Gulf of Mexico Friday into Saturday. This will induce gale
force winds with building seas over and downstream of the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec by Fri afternoon into Sat. Winds should begin to 
decrease Sat. By early next week, a stronger cold front will make 
its way across the SW Gulf increasing winds along the Gulf of 
Tehuantecpec to gale force starting Sun.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
09N83W to 09N110W to 08N128W. The ITCZ continues from 08N128W to
08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N 
between 110W to 129W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A surface trough extends west of the Baja California peninsula 
supporting a weak pressure gradient and mainly gentle winds north
of Cabo San Lucas. Tropical moisture is accompanying this trough
and moving across Baja California and into NW Mexico as well as 
the SW United States. Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail 
between Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas, with light to gentle 
winds from north of the Tehuantepec region to Michoacan, as well 
as in the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 3 to 4 ft range 
over the open waters off Mexico and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, strong winds will develop over the northern 
Gulf of California tonight building seas to around 8 ft, with 
winds and seas spreading to the central Gulf through Fri before 
beginning to diminish Fri afternoon. Another gale-force gap wind
event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh NE winds continue over the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle
winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas across the area are
in the 4 to 5 ft range in south to southwest swell, except 3 to 4 ft
offshore of Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo 
region will pulse to strong speeds during the early morning hours
today and Thu, then again this weekend. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail across the rest of the area for the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters west of Clarion
Island. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and low pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to 
near 18N and west of 120W, with locally strong winds west of 
130W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion 
waters, except moderate to fresh north of 27N between 120W and 
130W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft continue in the area of fresh winds.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong in the west-central 
waters will continue before diminishing slightly. Northerly 
swell will spread south of 30N between 120W and 130W tonight 
through Thu, building seas to around 8 ft north of 27N. Otherwise,
little change is forecast through the end of the week. Winds 
will diminish across the waters north of the ITCZ this weekend as
the pressure gradient loosens.
 
$$
Torres