000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240841
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Nov 24 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N90W to 08N104W to
10N113W to 09N119W. The ITCZ continues from 09N119W to 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N east of 
85W, from 08N to 11N between 94W and 102W, and from 08N to 11N 
between 108W and 140W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong to near gale- force winds and seas to around 11 ft 
prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A surface trough extends 
west of the Baja California peninsula supporting a weak pressure 
gradient and mainly gentle winds north of Cabo San Lucas. 
Tropical moisture is accompanying this trough and moving across 
Baja California and into NW Mexico as well as the SW United 
States. Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail between Cabo 
Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas, with light to gentle winds from 
north of the Tehuantepec region to Michoacan, as well as in the 
Gulf of California. Seas are in the 3 to 4 ft range over the 
open waters off Mexico and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, strong to near gale-force winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will diminish today. Strong winds will develop over 
the northern Gulf of California tonight building seas to around 
8 ft, with winds and seas spreading to the central Gulf through 
Fri before beginning to diminish Fri afternoon. Another gale- 
force gap wind event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri 
night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh NE winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to 
gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle 
to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas 
across the area are in the 4 to 5 ft range in south to southwest
swell, except 3 to 4 ft offshore of Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo 
region will pulse to strong speeds during the early morning hours
today and Thu, then again Sat and Sun. Gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail across the rest of the area for the next several 
days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters west of 115W.
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and 
lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting 
moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to 
near 20N and west of 125W, with locally strong winds west of 
135W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion 
waters, except moderate to fresh north of 27N between 120W and 
130W. Seas of 6 to 9 ft continue in the area of fresh winds and 4
to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong in the west- central 
waters will continue this morning before diminishing slightly.  
Northerly swell will spread south of 30N between 120W and 130W 
tonight through Thu, building seas to around 8 ft north of 27N. 
Otherwise, little change is forecast through the end of the week.
Winds will diminish across the waters north of the ITCZ this 
weekend as the pressure gradient loosens.
 
$$
AL