000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231951 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Nov 23 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across eastern Mexico and lower pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale- force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These gale-force winds will prevail through early tonight before diminishing. Seas are peaking around 11 ft this evening. Winds may once again increase to gale-force Fri afternoon and evening, with yet another round of gale-force winds possible Sun night. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 10N85W to 07N90W to 11N115W. The ITCZ extends west of a surface trough from 08N123W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 77W and 86W, from 06N to 08N between 97W and 99W, from 08N to 13N between 107W and 121W, and from 06N to 10N between 122W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for more information on the ongoing gale-force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale-force winds and seas to around 11 ft prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A surface trough extends west of the Baja California peninsula supporting a weak pressure gradient and mainly gentle winds north of Cabo San Lucas. Tropical moisture is accompanying this trough and moving across Baja California and into NW Mexico as well as the SW United States. Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail between Cabo Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas, with light to gentle winds from north of the Tehuantepec region to Michoacan, as well as in the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range over the open waters off Mexico and 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, gale-force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will prevail through early tonight as strong high pressure prevails over eastern Mexico. Strong winds will develop over the northern Gulf of California Wed night building seas to around 8 ft, with winds and seas spreading to the central Gulf through Fri before beginning to diminish Fri afternoon. Another gale-force gap wind event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri afternoon and evening, with another round of gale-force winds possible Sun night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh NE winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo this afternoon. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, except moderate NW-N in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas across the area are in the 4 to 6 ft range in south to southwest swell, except 3 to 5 ft offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to strong speeds during the early morning hours through Thu, then again Sat and Sun. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the area for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the northern waters west of 115W. A surface trough is embedded in the ITCZ extending from 13N115W to 07N121W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters, except moderate to fresh north of 27N between 124W and 131W. Seas of 6 to 9 ft continue in the area of fresh winds and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, winds will increase slightly to fresh to locally strong in the west-central waters tonight into early Wed, building seas there to 8 to 10 ft. Northerly swell will spread south of 30N between 120W and 130W Wed night through Thu, building seas to around 8 ft north of 27N. Otherwise, little change is forecast through the end of the week. Winds will diminish across the waters north of the ITCZ this weekend as the pressure gradient slackens. $$ Lewitsky