000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230240
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Nov 23 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure is building
across eastern Mexico in the wake of a cold front over the Gulf 
of Mexico. The tightening pressure gradient between this 
building high pressure and lower pressure within the eastern 
north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale- force winds 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale- force winds will prevail 
through Tue night before diminishing. Winds may diminish below 
gale force for a few hours Tue afternoon. Seas will peak to near 
12 ft early Tue morning. Please see the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N85W to 09N114W. The ITCZ 
extends from 09N114W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 78W and 91W, 
from 05N to 10N between 100W and 120W, and from 08N to 10N 
between 123W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for more 
information on the ongoing gale-force gap wind event over the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Gale- force winds and seas to 10 ft prevail over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. A surface ridge extends west of the Baja California 
peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail across the open waters 
off Mexico as well as the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4 
to 5 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, 1 to 3 ft over 
the southern Gulf of California, and 3 to 4 ft over the northern 
and central Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, gale- force winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will prevail through Tue night as strong high 
pressure surges southward over eastern Mexico. Strong winds will 
develop over the northern Gulf of California Wed night then 
spread to the central Gulf through Fri before beginning to 
diminish Fri afternoon. Another gale- force gap wind event is 
possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. 
Seas across the area are in the 4 to 6 ft range in south to 
southwest swell.

For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo 
region will pulse to strong speeds early Tue and again early Wed,
and once again Fri night and Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail across the rest of the area for the next several 
days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh 
northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west 
of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the 
discussion waters. Seas of 6 to 8 ft continue in the area of 
fresh winds and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds will increase slightly to fresh to
locally strong in the west-central waters Tue into early Wed
building seas there to 8 to 10 ft. Northerly swell will spread 
south of 30N between 120W and 130W Wed night through Thu, 
building seas to around 8 ft north of 27N. Otherwise, little 
change is forecast through the end of the week.
 
$$
AL