452 AXPZ20 KNHC 221537 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Nov 22 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front over the NW Gulf of Mexico will move across the Gulf of Mexico today. High pressure will build along eastern Mexico in the wake of the front. The tightening pressure gradient between this building high pressure and lower pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will usher in the next gale-force gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale-force winds are forecast tonight through Tue night before diminishing. Winds may diminish below gale force for a few hours Tue afternoon. Seas will peak to near 12 ft early Tue morning. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 09N95W to 09N103W. The ITCZ extends from 09N103W to 08N115W to 10N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 77W and 85W, from 10N to 13N between 87W and 93W, from 06N to 11N between 97W and 118W, and from 07N to 11N between 121W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see above for more information on an upcoming gale-force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong to near gale-force winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A surface ridge extends west of the Baja California peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail across the open waters off Mexico as well as the southern Gulf of California, except gentle to moderate offshore of Baja California Norte and moderate to locally fresh near Cabo Corrientes. Fresh to strong winds are over the northern Gulf of California, with moderate winds over the central Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, 1 to 3 ft over the southern Gulf of California, and 3 to 6 ft over the northern and central Gulf of California. For the forecast, strong to near gale-force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to gale-force tonight into Tue as strong high pressure surges southward over eastern Mexico. Fresh to strong northwest winds over the northern Gulf of California will diminish to moderate speeds this afternoon. Strong winds will redevelop Wed night then spread across the Gulf through Fri before beginning to diminish Fri night. Moderate northwest to north winds are expected offshore Baja California Norte beginning Wed and continue through Fri. Another gale-force gap wind event is possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas across the area are in the 4 to 6 ft range in south to southwest swell. For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to strong speeds early Tue and again early Wed, and once again Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the area for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to near 25N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas of 6 to 8 ft continue in the area of fresh winds and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, winds will increase slightly to fresh to locally strong in the west-central waters Tue into early Wed building seas there to 8 to 10 ft. Northerly swell will drop south of 30N between 120W and 130W Wed night through Thu building seas to around 8 ft north of 27N. Otherwise, little change is forecast through the end of the week. $$ Lewitsky