000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220840
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Nov 22 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front over the NW Gulf 
of Mexico will move across the Gulf of Mexico today. High 
pressure will build along eastern Mexico in the wake of the 
front. The tightening pressure gradient between this building 
high pressure and lower pressure within the eastern north Pacific
monsoon trough will usher in the next gale-force gap wind event 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale-force winds are forecast 
tonight through Tue before diminishing. Seas will peak to near 12
ft early Tue morning. Please see the latest NWS High Seas 
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N109W. The ITCZ 
continues from 08N109W to 08N128W to 10N130W to 09N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 
80W and 85W, from 08N to 10N between 95W and 116W, and from 08N
to 10N between 120W and 130W.  

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see above for more information on an upcoming gale-force 
gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Strong to near gale- force winds prevail over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. A surface ridge extends west of the Baja California
peninsula. Light to gentle winds prevail across the open waters
off Mexico as well as the southern Gulf of California. Fresh to
strong winds are over the northern Gulf of California, with
moderate winds over the central Gulf of California. Seas are in 
the 4-5 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, 1-3 ft over 
the southern Gulf of California, and 3-5 ft over the northern 
and central Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, the strong to near gale- force winds across 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to gale- force tonight into
Tue as strong high pressure surges southward over eastern 
Mexico. Fresh to strong northwest winds over the northern Gulf of
California will diminish to moderate speeds this afternoon. 
Strong winds will redevelop Wed then spread across the Gulf 
through Fri before beginning to diminish Fri night. Moderate 
northwest to north winds are expected offshore Baja California 
Norte beginning Wed and continue through Fri, then diminish 
slightly Fri night. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo. Light
to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. 
Seas across the area are in the 4-5 ft range in south to 
southwest swell.

For the forecast, the fresh northeast to east winds in the 
Papagayo region will pulse to strong speeds early Tue and 
diminish back to fresh speeds Tue afternoon. Gentle to moderate 
winds will prevail across the rest of the area for the next 
several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure 
gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure 
in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh 
northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to near 25N and west 
of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the 
discussion waters. Seas of 6-8 ft continue in the area of fresh 
winds and 4-6 ft elsewhere.
 
$$
AL