000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211543 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Nov 21 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico early next week. High pressure will build along eastern Mexico in the wake of the front. The tightening pressure gradient between this building high pressure and lower pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will usher in the next gale-force gap wind event across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gale-force winds are forecast from Mon night through Tue before diminishing. Seas will peak to near 12 ft early Tue morning. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia to across Panama, then continues to the coast at 09N84W to 08N96W and to 07N106W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N120W to 09N130W and to beyond the area at 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 99W-107W and within 60 nm north of the trough between 122W-124W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 82W-83W, within 30 nm of the trough between 129W-134W, and between 136W-140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see above for more information on an upcoming gale-force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Strong to near gale-force winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle winds are noted elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, strong to near gale-force north to northeast winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish slightly today. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to gale- force Mon night and Tue as strong high pressure surges southward over eastern Mexico. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds may briefly develop in the northern Gulf of California on Mon, then spread across the entire Gulf late in the week along with building seas. Moderate northwest to north winds are expected offshore Baja California Norte beginning Wed. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong winds, and seas to 6 ft, prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Papagayo region will diminish to fresh speeds this afternoon. Winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will once again pulse to strong speeds on Tue and Wed. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the area for the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure gradient between this are of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are north of 27N between 118W-134W. Gentle to moderate mainly northeast to east winds remain elsewhere. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail in the area of fresh winds and 4-6 ft elsewhere except for slightly higher seas of 5-7 ft with the moderate northeast to east winds that are near the fresh winds west of 120W. $$ Aguirre