000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210844
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Nov 21 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across
the Gulf of Mexico early next week. High pressure will build 
along eastern Mexico in the wake of the front. The tightening 
pressure gradient between this building high pressure and lower 
pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will 
usher in the next gale- force gap wind event across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec. Gale-force winds are forecast from Mon night through
Tue before diminishing. Seas will peak near 12 ft early Tue 
morning. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 00N84W to 07N103W to 09N106W. 
The ITCZ continues from 09N106W to 11N120W to 09N127W to 
09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N 
between 95W and 105W, and from 09N to 11N between 112W and 122W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see above for more information on the next gale- force gap
wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Strong to near gale-force winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, prevail 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle winds are noted elsewhere 
over the open waters off Mexico. Over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 
light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over 
the open waters off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of 
California.

For the forecast, strong to near gale-force north to northeast 
winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish slightly 
today. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will increase to gale- 
force Mon night and Tue as strong high pressure surges southward 
over eastern Mexico. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds may
briefly develop in the northern Gulf of California on Mon, then 
spread across the entire Gulf late in the week along with 
building seas. Moderate northwest to north winds are expected 
offshore Baja California Norte beginning Wed. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong winds, and seas to 6 ft, prevail over the Gulf 
of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the
Papagayo region will diminish to fresh speeds this afternoon. 
Winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will once again pulse to strong 
speeds on Tue and Wed. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
across the rest of the area for the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure
gradient between this are of high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds
north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W. Gentle to 
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail in the
area of fresh winds, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. 
 
$$
AL