000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200016
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Nov 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure building behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front and 
lower pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is
supporting gale-force north to northeast winds across the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec from tonight into late Sat morning. Winds will be 
at near gale- force during Sat afternoon and late Sat night. Seas
will peak near 12 ft tonight. Please see the latest NWS High 
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia to a 
1010 mb low near 10N77W, then dips southwest to over central
Panama, to the coast at 09N82W and continues to 06N90W and 
to 07N109W. The ITCZ continues from 07N109W to 09N119W to 
11N128W, where it pauses just to the east of a trough. It resumes
to the west of the trough from 10N132W to beyond the area at 
09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 114W-116W, within 60 nm 
south of the ITCZ between 135W-138W and within 30 nm of the ITCZ 
between 119W-125W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm
north of the ITCZ between 110W-114W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Updated

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
a Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event that will start 
up again in a few hours.

As for the synoptic pattern outside the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region, a ridge extends from high pressure of 1025 mb centered 
near 29N130W southeastward across the offshore waters west of the
Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient across the area
is supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the open 
waters outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are in the 4-6 ft 
range across these open waters. Over the Gulf of California, 
light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the 2-4 ft in the 
southern Gulf of California, and 3 ft or less in the central and 
northern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, gale-force winds will prevail across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region through Sat morning. Gap winds may once again
approach gale-force again in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region 
early next week as strong high pressure surges southward over 
eastern Mexico. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds may 
develop in the northern Gulf of California early next week. 
Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere through the 
weekend and into early next week. Fresh northwest winds are 
expected offshore Baja California Norte during the middle of next
week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the Papagayo region. 
Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon 
trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range across the majority 
of the offshore waters, highest south of Panama and west of 
Colombia and Ecuador.

For the forecast, fresh to strong east winds in the Papagayo 
region will continue through Sat. Winds will pulse to fresh to 
strong speeds once again early on Sun, then remain at moderate to
fresh speeds thereafter. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail 
across the rest of the area the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high pressure center is located near 29N130W. A
weakening cold front is over the far NW corner of the area.
A surface trough extends from 14N128W to 08N132W. Satellite 
imagery shows a large area of scattered moderate to strong 
convection from 11N to 16N between 125W-131W. This activity is 
being enhanced by a large mid to upper-level trough that is
present to its northwest. The pressure gradient between the area
of high pressure and the surface trough is supporting moderate 
to fresh east winds from 10N to 20N between 119W and 140W. Light 
to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to
moderate winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ. Seas of 5-7 ft are observed over the waters within the 
moderate to fresh winds. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, the weakening cold front will transition to a 
trough that will move across the far northern waters through the 
weekend. It will be followed by moderate to fresh north to 
northeast winds as high pressure builds in behind it. Seas of 5-6
ft will follow in wake of the cold front. An area of fresh to 
strong east winds between the trough that extends from 14N128W to
08N132W and the aforementioned high pressure exists from 13N to 
15N between 128W- 130W. Seas with these winds are in the range of
8-10 ft. These winds are forecast to diminish to mainly fresh 
speeds during Sat afternoon, with seas to 8 ft due to mixed 
swell.
 
$$
AL