000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192300 AAA TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2300 UTC Fri Nov 19 2021 Updated forecast for the Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Latest scatterometer data over the Gulf revealed that the gale-force north to northeast winds diminished to just below gale-force intensity. However, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure that is building behind a Gulf of Mexico cold front and lower pressure within the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will initialize gale-force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec from tonight into late Sat morning. Winds will be at near gale-force during Sat afternoon and late Sat night. Seas will build to around 12 ft during this upcoming event. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwestern Colombia to a 1010 mb low near 10N77W, then dips southwest to over central Panama, to the coast at 09N82W and continues to 06N90W and to 07N109W. The ITCZ continues from 07N109W to 09N119W to 11N128W, where it pauses just to the east of a trough. It resumes to the west of the trough from 10N132W to beyond the area at 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 114W-116W, within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 135W-138W and within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 119W-125W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 110W-114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Updated Please see the Special Features section above for details on a Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event that will start up again in a few hours. As for the synoptic pattern outside the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, a ridge extends from high pressure of 1025 mb centered near 29N130W southeastward across the offshore waters west of the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient across the area is supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the open waters outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range across these open waters. Over the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the 2-4 ft in the southern Gulf of California, and 3 ft or less in the central and northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, gale-force winds will begin again across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region tonight, and continue through late morning on Sat. Gap winds may once again approach gale-force again in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region early next week as strong high pressure surges southward over eastern Mexico. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds may develop in the northern Gulf of California early next week. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere through the weekend and into early next week. Fresh northwest winds are expected offshore Baja California Norte during the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR The earlier moderate to fresh northeast to east winds across the Papagayo region diminished to mainly fresh speeds during the afternoon. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range across the majority of the offshore waters, highest south of Panama and west of Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, the fresh northeast to east winds in the Papagayo region will increase to fresh to strong speeds this evening, and continue through late Sat night before pulsing back up to fresh to strong speeds early on Sun, hen remain at moderate to fresh speeds thereafter. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the area the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1025 mb high pressure center is located near 29N130W. A weakening cold front is over the far NW corner of the area. A surface trough extends from 14N128W to 08N132W. Satellite imagery shows a large area of scattered moderate to strong convection from 11N to 16N between 125W-131W. This activity is being enhanced by a large mid to upper-level trough that is present to its northwest. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the surface trough is supporting moderate to fresh east winds from 10N to 20N between 119W and 140W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas of 5-7 ft are observed over the waters within the moderate to fresh winds. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft prevail. For the forecast, the weakening cold front will transition to a trough that will move across the far northern waters through the weekend. It will be followed by moderate to fresh north to northeast winds as high pressure builds in behind it. Seas of 5-6 ft will follow in wake of the cold front. An area of fresh to strong east winds between the trough that extends from 14N128W to 08N132W and the aforementioned high pressure exists from 13N to 15N between 128W- 130W. Seas with these winds are in the range of 8-10 ft. These winds are forecast to diminish to mainly fresh speeds during Sat afternoon, with seas to 8 ft due to mixed swell. $$ Aguirre