000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190841
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Nov 19 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0840 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front over the NW Gulf 
of Mexico will reach the southeast part of that Gulf late today.
High pressure will build behind the front. The pressure gradient
between this building high pressure and lower pressure within 
the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support a gale- 
force gap wind event from early today into late Sat morning. 
Seas will build to around 12 ft during this upcoming event. 
Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 08N90W to 09N108W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N108W to 09N124W. It resumes from 10N130W 
to 10N134W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 05N to 
09N between 82W and 87W, and from 08N to 10N between 108W and
118W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 08N to 14N between 120W and 132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details on the
next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale- force gap wind event.

Strong to near- gale force north to northeast winds are across 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, with seas to 7 ft. A surface 
ridge extends from high pressure of 1022 mb centered near 
28N130W southeastward across the offshore waters west of the 
Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient across the area 
is supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the open 
waters outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are in the 4-6 ft 
range across these open waters. Over the Gulf of California, 
light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the 2-4 ft in the 
southern Gulf of California, and 3 ft or less in the central and 
northern Gulf of California.

For the forecast, strong to near gale north to northeast winds 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will reach gale-force early
this morning and continue through Sat. Gap winds may once again 
approach gale-force again in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region early
next week as strong high pressure surges southward over eastern 
Mexico. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds may develop in 
the northern Gulf of California early next week. Fairly tranquil 
conditions are forecast elsewhere through the upcoming weekend. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Papagayo region. 
Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon 
trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range across the majority
of the offshore waters, highest south of Panama and west of 
Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will
continue in the Papagayo region today. Fresh to strong winds 
will return tonight through Sat, then moderate to fresh 
thereafter. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest
of the area the next several days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 28N130W. A trough 
extends from 14N124W to 07N128W. A second trough is to the west 
along a position from near 13N132W to 06N136W. The pressure 
gradient between the area of high pressure and the surface 
troughs is supporting moderate to fresh winds from 10N to 20N 
between 120W and 140W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity 
of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere north 
of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the 
monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas of 5-7 ft are observed over the 
waters within the moderate to fresh winds. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6
ft prevail. 

For the forecast, a cold front over the far NW corner of the 
area will move across the far northern waters through late Sat as
it weakens. It will be followed by moderate to fresh north to 
northeast winds as high pressure builds in behind it. Seas of 5-7
ft will follow in wake of the cold front. An area of fresh to 
strong east winds between the first trough mentioned above and 
the aforementioned high pressure is forecast to develop from 13N 
to 15N between 129W-132W beginning late this afternoon. Seas 
with these winds are expected to build to 8 ft. By early Sat, 
these winds are forecast to diminish to mainly fresh speeds, with
seas to 8 ft primarily due to a north swell.
 
$$
AL