000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172001
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Nov 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1940 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front is forecast to
move through the Gulf of Mexico Thu into Fri with high pressure
building behind it across eastern Mexico. The building high
combined with lower pressure south of southern Mexico will
support a gale-force northerly gap wind event from early Fri
through Sat morning. Seas will build to around 12 ft during the
event. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N102W to 1014 mb low
pressure near 10N119W to 1014 mb low pressure near 08N128W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N128W to 08N135W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 77W
and 87W, and from 10N to 13N between 90W and 94W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 100W and
108W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on a
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Fresh to strong N-NE winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
with seas to 8 ft. A surface ridge extends across the offshore 
waters with mainly gentle to moderate winds across the waters 
outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft 
range across the open waters. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the southern
Gulf of California, and 3 ft or less in the central and northern
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will gradually diminish to moderate to fresh by this
evening. A gale force northerly gap wind event is forecast in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Fri through Sat morning. Fairly 
tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere through the upcoming 
weekend. Gap winds may approach gale-force again in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec early next week. Fresh to strong NW-N winds may 
develop in the northern Gulf of California early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Papagayo region. 
Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon 
trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range across the 
majority of the offshore waters, highest south of Panama and west
of Colombia and Ecuador. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted south of Panama and Costa Rica, and west of Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the 
Papagayo region through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will return 
Fri night through Sat, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Gentle 
to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the area 
through the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad and weak ridge extends from north of the area to near
20N110W. A pair of weak surface lows are embedded in the monsoon
trough, with a 1014 mb low pressure area near 10N119W, and 
another 1014 mb low pressure area near 08N128W. Associated 
convection with these lows has diminished. A surface trough is 
west of the lows extending from 12N136W to 07N138W. No
significant convection is noted near the trough. Moderate to 
locally fresh trades are noted north of the convergence zone to 
21N, with gentle to moderate winds north of there under the 
ridge. Gentle to moderate southerly flow prevails south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail south of 21N, locally 
to 8 ft near 12N118W, with 4 to 6 ft north of 22N, highest along 
30N between 120W and 130W.

For the forecast, little change is expected through the end of
the week. A cold front may drop south into the far northern 
waters Fri night. High pressure may build behind the front with 
freshening winds for the end of the weekend into early next week.
Seas may build to around 8 ft in the west-central waters north of
the ITCZ early next week with the freshening winds and
lengthening fetch.
 
$$
Lewitsky