000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170911
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Nov 17 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 1012 mb low pres near
10N117W to a 1013 mb low pres near 08N126W to 07N128W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N128W to 07N133W, then resumes W of a trough near
08N137W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
the monsoon trough between 95W and 106W, with the lows from 07N 
to 15N between 110W and 126W, and with the trough from 07N to 
17N between 129W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N-NE winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
with seas to 8 ft. A surface ridge extends across the offshore 
waters with mainly gentle to moderate winds across the waters 
outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft 
range across the open waters. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the southern
half of the Gulf of California, and 3 ft or less in the northern
half.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will gradually diminish to moderate to fresh by this 
afternoon. A second strong gap wind event is forecast for the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Thu evening, with possible gale 
force winds on Fri. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast 
elsewhere through the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Papagayo region. 
Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon 
trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range across the 
majority of the offshore waters, highest offshore of Ecuador, 
southern Colombia, and the Papagayo region. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted south of Panama and west of Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the 
Papagayo region through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will return 
Fri night into Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across 
the rest of the area through the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is centered just north of the area with its ridge 
extending to near 13N110W. A pair of surface troughs are 
embedded in the ITCZ with the eastern trough extending from 
13N118W to 1010 mb low pressure near 10N119W to 06N119W, and the
western trough extending from 14N130W to 07N135W. Active 
convection is noted with both troughs as is described above. 
Fresh to locally strong winds are noted near the eastern trough 
with seas to 8 ft at times with long period swell mixing with 
the winds. Moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere 
south of 22N, with light to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas 
north of 22N.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail near the 
ITCZ with seas locally to around 8 ft at times. A cold front may
drop south into the far northern waters by the end of the week.
High pressure may build behind the front with freshening winds
for the end of the weekend into early next week.
 
$$
ERA