000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161950
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Nov 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 07N103W to 1012 mb low
pressure near 09N119W to 08N126W. The ITCZ extends from 08N126W
to 08N132W, then resumes from 08N135W to 10N140W. Scattered 
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N
between 77W and 85W, from 09N to 12N between 91W and 95W, and
from 07N to 14N between 110W and 122W.

A surface trough is embedded in the ITCZ from 13N130W to 06N134W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm of the
trough.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong N-NE winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
with seas of 8 to 11 ft. A surface ridge extends across the 
offshore waters with mainly gentle to moderate winds across the 
waters outside of the Tehuantepec region. Seas are in the 4 to 6 
ft range across the open waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the 
southern half of the Gulf of California, and 3 ft or less in the 
northern half.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will gradually diminish to moderate to fresh by Wed 
afternoon. A second strong gap wind event is forecast for the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Thu evening, with possible gale 
force winds Fri night into Sat. Fairly tranquil conditions are 
forecast elsewhere through the remainder of the week and into the
weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Papagayo region. 
Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon 
trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough axis. Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range across the 
majority of the offshore waters, highest offshore of Ecuador, 
southern Colombia, and the Papagayo region. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted south of Panama and west of Colombia.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the 
Papagayo region through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will return 
Fri night into Sat. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across 
the rest of the area through the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is centered just north of the area with its ridge 
extending to near 19N110W. A pair of surface troughs are 
embedded in the ITCZ with the eastern trough extending from 
13N118W to 1012 mb low pressure near 09N119W to 06N119W, and the
western trough extending from 13N130W to 06N134W. Very active 
convection is noted with both troughs as is described above. 
Fresh to locally strong winds are noted near the eastern trough 
with seas of 8 to 9 ft with long period swell mixing with the 
winds. Moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere south
of 22N, with light to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of
22N.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail near the 
ITCZ with seas locally to around 8 ft at times. A cold front may
drop south into the far northern waters by the end of the week.
High pressure may build behind the front with freshening winds
for the end of the weekend into early next week.
 
$$
Lewitsky