000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161457 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Nov 16 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area in the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of southern Mexico is supporting gale-force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to around 12 ft. These conditions will diminish and subside later this morning as the gradient relaxes. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 06N100W to 09N117W. The ITCZ extends from 09N121W to 08N130W, then resumes from 08N134W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 77W and 83W, from 07N to 15N between 110W and 125W, from 05N to 11N between 129W and 135W, and from 07N to 10N between 138W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 08.5N between 98W and 101.5W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. A surface ridge extends across the offshore waters with mainly gentle to moderate winds across the waters outside of the Tehuantepec region, locally to fresh in the southern half of the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range across the open waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the southern half of the Gulf of California, and 3 ft or less in the northern half. For the forecast, gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish later this morning, with seas to around 12 ft. Strong winds will then gradually diminish to moderate to fresh by Wed afternoon. A second gap wind event is forecast for the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu evening with possible gale force winds Fri and Fri night. Locally fresh northerly winds are possible through today in the southern half of the Gulf of California. Tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere through the week and into the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh winds prevail across the Papagayo region. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough, except moderate in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough axis. Seas are in the 4 to 7 ft range across the majority of the offshore waters, highest offshore of Ecuador, southern Colombia, and the Papagayo region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted south of Panama and west of Colombia. For the forecast, Fresh winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through today, with moderate to fresh tonight through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will return Fri and Fri night. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the area through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is centered just north of the area with its ridge extending to near 18N112W. A pair of surface troughs are embedded in the ITCZ with the eastern trough extending from 14N118W to 07N119W, and the western trough extending from 13N130W to 06N133W. Very active convection is noted with both troughs as is described above. Fresh winds are noted near the eastern trough with seas of 8 to 9 ft with long period swell mixed with the winds. Moderate to locally fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere south of 22N, with light to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 22N. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail near the ITCZ with seas locally to around 8 ft at times. A cold front may drop south into the far northern waters by the end of the week. High pressure may build behind the front with freshening winds for the end of the weekend into early next week. $$ Lewitsky