000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160810
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Nov 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of
southern Mexico is supporting gale-force winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec with seas to around 12 ft. These conditions are 
forecast to continue through this morning. Swell induced from 
these winds will reach downstream as far as around 10N100W. 
Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N92W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N92W to 07N130W, then resumes W of a trough near 
08N134W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is along the 
ITCZ between 96W and 104W, and from 07N to 18N between 111W and 
137W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A surface ridge extends across the offshore waters with gentle 
to moderate northerly winds in the southern half of the Gulf of 
California and offshore of Baja California Sur. Gentle northerly
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range across 
the open waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the southern half of the 
Gulf of California, and 3 ft or less in the northern half.

For the forecast, gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will persist through this morning as high pressure 
sits over the Gulf of Mexico, with seas to around 12 ft. Strong 
winds will gradually diminish to moderate by Wed afternoon. A 
second gap wind event is forecast for Tehuantepec Thu evening 
with possible gale force winds starting early Fri. Locally fresh 
N winds are possible through Tue in the southern half of the Gulf
of California. Tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere 
through the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh winds prevail across the Papagayo region with 5 to 6 ft 
seas. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south 
of the monsoon trough axis. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range 
across the majority of the offshore waters. Scattered showers 
and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse in the Papagayo region 
through today, with moderate to fresh expected tonight through 
Fri. Fresh to strong winds will return by the end of the week. 
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the area
through the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is centered just north of the area with its ridge 
extending to near 17N110W. The resultant pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
is supporting moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds 
north of the ITCZ to 20N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. 
Moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas across the 
remainder of the Pacific are also in the 5 to 7 ft range in 
mixed swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail near the 
ITCZ. Two small areas along the ITCZ could produce fresh to 
strong winds with seas to 8 ft near the highest winds through 
midweek. A cold front may drop south into the far northern waters
by the end of the week, with freshening winds and seas of 8 ft 
along and behind it.
 
$$
ERA