055 
AXPZ20 KNHC 160147
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Nov 16 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of
southern Mexico is supporting gale-force winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec with seas to around 12 ft. These conditions are 
forecast to continue into Tue morning. Swell induced from these 
winds will reach downstream as far as around 10N100W.
Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N93W. The ITCZ 
extends from 07N93W to 09N129W, then resumes W of a trough near
10N133W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is along the 
ITCZ between 95W and 101W, and from 07N to 19N between 116W and 
136W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A surface ridge extends across the offshore waters with gentle 
to moderate northerly winds in the southern half of the Gulf of 
California and offshore of Baja California Sur. Gentle northerly
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range across 
the open waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the southern half of the 
Gulf of California, and 3 ft or less in the northern half.

For the forecast, gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will persist through Tue morning as high pressure
sits over the Gulf of Mexico, with seas to around 12 ft. Strong 
winds will gradually diminish to moderate by Wed afternoon. A 
second gap wind event is forecast for Tehuantepec Thu evening 
with possible gale force winds starting early Fri. Locally fresh 
N winds are possible through Tue in the southern half of the Gulf
of California. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere
through the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the Papagayo region with 
5 to 6 ft seas. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted north
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds 
prevail south of the monsoon trough axis. Seas are in the 4 to 6 
ft range across the majority of the offshore waters. Showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of Panama southward.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the 
Papagayo region through Tue, with moderate to fresh Tue night 
through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will return by the end of the
week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of 
the area through the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is centered just north of the area with its ridge 
extending to near 17N110W. The resultant pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
is supporting moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds 
north of the ITCZ to 20N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. 
Moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas across the 
remainder of the Pacific are also in the 5 to 7 ft range in 
mixed swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail near the 
ITCZ tonight. Two small areas along the ITCZ could produce fresh
to strong winds with seas to 8 ft near the highest winds through
midweek. A cold front may drop south into the far northern 
waters by the end of the week, with freshening winds and seas of 
8 ft along and behind it.
 
$$
ERA