000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151947
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Nov 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of
southern Mexico is supporting gale-force winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec with seas to around 12 ft. These conditions are 
forecast to continue into Tue morning. Swell induced from these 
winds will reach downstream as far as around 10N100W.
Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to across Panama and Costa
Rica to 10N86W to 06N94W. The ITCZ extends from 06N94W to 08N110W
to 10N120W to 11N130W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and 
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 115W 
and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A weak ridge extends across the offshore waters with gentle to
moderate northerly winds in the southern half of the Gulf of
California and offshore of Baja California Sur. Mainly gentle
northerly winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft
range across the open waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the southern
half of the Gulf of California, and 3 ft or less in the northern
half.

For the forecast, gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will persist through Tue morning as high pressure
sits over the Gulf of Mexico, with seas to around 12 ft. Strong 
winds will gradually diminish to moderate by Wed afternoon. A 
second gap wind event is forecast for Tehuantepec Thu evening 
with possible gale force winds starting early Fri. Locally fresh 
N winds are possible through Tue in the southern half of the Gulf
of California. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere
through the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong winds prevail across the Papagayo region with 
5 to 7 ft seas. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted north
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southerly winds 
prevail south of the monsoon trough axis. Seas are in the 4 to 6 
ft range across the majority of the offshore waters. Showers and 
isolated thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of Panama southward.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the 
Papagayo region through Tue, with moderate to fresh Tue night 
through Fri. Fresh to strong winds will return Fri night and Sat.
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the 
area through the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure is centered just north of the area with its ridge 
extending to near 17N114W. The resultant pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
is supporting moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds 
north of the ITCZ to 20N. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. 
Moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas across the 
remainder of the Pacific are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail near the 
ITCZ tonight. Two small areas along the ITCZ could produce fresh
to strong winds with seas to 8 ft near the highest winds through
midweek. A cold front may drop south into the far northern 
waters by the end of the week, with freshening winds and seas of 
8 ft along and behind it.
 
$$
Lewitsky