000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151503
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Nov 15 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of
southern Mexico is supporting gale-force winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec with seas to 12 ft. These conditions are forecast to
continue into Tue morning. Swell induced from these winds will 
reach downstream as far as around 10N101W. Please see the latest 
NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75W to across Panama and
Costa Rica to 09N86W to 06N95W. The ITCZ extends from 06N95W to 
09N120W to 10N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 90W and 92W, 
from 07N to 12N between 115W and 130W, and from 07N to 09N 
between 138W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 04N to 09N between 77W and 81W, and from 12N to 16N between 
120W and 129W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A weak pressure gradient across most of the region is supporting
light to gentle variable winds along Baja California Norte, with
gentle to moderate NW-N winds along Baja California Sur. Moderate
to fresh NW-N winds are in the southern half of the Gulf of
California, with gentle winds elsewhere in the Gulf of California
and offshore of the open waters of Mexico. Seas are mainly in the
4 to 5 ft range offshore of Mexico, locally to 6 ft offshore of
Baja California Norte. In the Gulf of California, seas are 3 to 5
ft in the southern half, and 3 ft or less in the northern half.

For the forecast, gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec will persist through Tue morning as high pressure 
sits over the Gulf of Mexico, with seas to 12 ft. Strong winds 
will gradually diminish to moderate by Wed afternoon. A second 
gap wind event is forecast for Tehuantepec Thu evening with 
possible gale force winds starting early Fri. Locally fresh 
northerly winds are possible through Tue in the southern half of 
the Gulf of California. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast 
elsewhere through the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Papagayo region with 
seas 5 to 7 ft. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted north
of the monsoon trough, except locally moderate in the Gulf of
Panama. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough axis. Seas are in the 4 to 6 ft range across the
majority of the offshore waters. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of Panama southward.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse in the 
Papagayo region through Tue, with moderate to fresh thereafter. 
Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the area
through the week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure remains centered N of the area with its 
ridge extending to near 20N110W. The resultant pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ
is supporting moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds 
north of the ITCZ to 20N. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. 
Moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas across the 
remainder of the Pacific are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail near the 
ITCZ today. Two small areas along the ITCZ could produce fresh to
strong winds with seas to 8 ft near the highest winds through 
midweek. A cold front may drop south into the far northern waters
by the end of the week, with freshening winds and seas of 8 ft
along and behind it.
 
$$
Lewitsky