000 AXPZ20 KNHC 150852 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Nov 15 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure building into the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure S of Mexico is bringing gale-force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 12 ft. Model guidance indicates that winds remain at 35 kt and seas to 12 ft through Tue. Swell induced from these winds will reach downstream as far as around 10N101W. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the Costa Rica border near 09N84W to 07N97W. The ITCZ extends from 07N97W to 10N140. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 21N between 115W and 126W, and from 07N to 10N and W of 127W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. A weak pressure gradient across most of the region is supporting light to gentle variable winds along the Baja California peninsula and SW Mexican offshore waters. Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail across the Gulf of California. Mixed swell is generating seas in the 4-5 ft range W of the Baja California peninsula, and mainly SW swell supports seas of 4-5 ft across the southern and southwestern offshore waters. Seas in the Gulf of California range between the 1-3 ft. Gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through early Tue as high pressure sits over the Gulf of Mexico. Strong winds will gradually diminish to moderate by Wed afternoon. A second gap wind event is forecast for Tehuantepec Thu evening with possible gale force winds starting Fri morning. Locally fresh northerly winds are possible through Tue in the southern half of the Gulf of California. Quiescent conditions are expected elsewhere through the week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Papagayo region with seas 5-6 ft. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough axis. Seas range 4-6 ft across the region. Showers are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the morning hours across the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue. Moderate to fresh winds are forecast through the end of the week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the area through midweek. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure remains centered N of the area with its ridge extending to near 20N110W. The resultant pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds N of the ITCZ to 20N. Seas are 6-8 ft in this area. An area of fresh winds is noted along the ITCZ near 125W and is producing seas to 8 ft. Moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas across the remainder of the Pacific are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail near the ITCZ today. Two small areas along the ITCZ could produce fresh to strong winds with seas to 8 ft near the highest winds through midweek. $$ ERA