000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142113
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Nov 14 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure building into the Gulf of Mexico and lower 
pressure S of Mexico is bringing 35 kt gale-force winds over the
Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 13 ft. Model guidance indicates
that winds remain at least 35 kt and seas to 12 ft through Tue. 
Swell induced from these winds will reach downstream as far as 
around 10N101W. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from near the Costa Rica border near 
09N84W to 07N96W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N96W to 09N119W 
to 10N140. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 07N to 13N between 120W and 136W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 101W and 134W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale.

A weak pressure gradient across most of the region is supporting
light to gentle variable winds along the Baja California 
peninsula and SW Mexican offshore waters. Gentle to moderate
northerly winds prevail across the Gulf of California. Mixed 
swell is generating seas in the 4-5 ft range W of the Baja 
California peninsula, and mainly SW swell supports seas of 4-5 
ft across the southern and southwestern offshore waters. Seas in 
the Gulf of California range between the 1-3 ft.

Gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through
Tue as high pressure sits over the Gulf of Mexico. Northerly 
winds of 35 kt will continue through Mon night with 13 ft peak 
seas. Strong to near gale force winds will then continue Tue 
through early Tue evening. Strong winds will gradually diminish 
to moderate by Wed afternoon. A second gap wind event is forecast
for Tehuantepec Thu evening with possible gale force winds 
starting Fri morning. Moderate northerly winds in the southern 
half of the Gulf of California will continue today with locally 
fresh winds possible tonight through Tue. Quiescent conditions 
are expected elsewhere today and into early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh winds are occurring across the Papagayo region
with seas 5-6 ft. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted 
north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate winds south 
of the monsoon trough axis. Seas range 4-6 ft across the region. 
Showers are noted in the Gulf of Panama. 

Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the morning hours across the
Gulf of Papagayo through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh winds 
are forecast through the end of the week. Gentle to moderate 
winds will prevail across the rest of the area through midweek. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure remains centered N of the area with a 
ridge extending south to 20N and west of 115W. The resultant 
pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh 
northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 
130W. Seas are 6-8 ft in this area. An area of fresh to locally
strong winds is noted along the ITCZ near 125W and is producing
seas to 8-9 ft. Moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas 
across the remainder of the Pacific are 5-7 ft.

Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail near the ITCZ and W
of 130W through Mon morning. Two small systems along the ITCZ 
could produce fresh to locally strong winds with seas 8-9 ft near
the highest winds today through midweek.
 
$$
AReinhart