000 AXPZ20 KNHC 141600 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Nov 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure building into the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure S of Mexico is bringing 35 kt gale-force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 14 ft. Model guidance indicates that winds remain at least 35 kt through Tue. Swell induced from these winds will reach downstream as far as around 10N101W. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the Panama/Costa Rica border near 09N84W to 07N94W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N94W to 09N119W to 10N140. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 101W and 134W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale. A weak pressure gradient across most of the region is supporting light to gentle variable winds along the Baja California peninsula and SW Mexican offshore waters. Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail across the Gulf of California. Northwest swell is generating seas in the 4-5 ft range W of the Baja California peninsula, while mixed SW and NW swell supports seas of 4-5 ft across the southern and southwestern offshore waters. Seas in the Gulf of California range between the 1-3 ft. Gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through Tue as high pressure sits over the Gulf of Mexico. Northerly winds of 35 kt will continue through Mon night with 14 ft peak seas. Strong to near gale force winds will then continue Tue through early Tue evening. Strong winds will gradually diminish to moderate by Wed afternoon. A second gap wind event is forecast for Tehuantepec Thu evening with possible gale force winds starting Fri morning. Moderate northerly winds in the southern half of the Gulf of California will continue today with locally fresh winds possible tonight through Tue. Quiescent conditions are expected elsewhere today and into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh winds are occurring across the Papagayo region with seas 5-6 ft. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough axis. Seas range 4-6 ft across the region. Showers are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the morning hours across the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast for the remainder forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the area through midweek. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure remains centered N of the area with a ridge extending south to 22N and west of 120W. The resultant pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 130W. Seas are 6-7 ft in this area. Moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas across the remainder of the Pacific are 5-8 ft. Seas of 8-9 ft are near 11N to 17N and W of 137W and is expected to subside later today. Moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail near the ITCZ and W of 130W through Mon morning. Two small lows will spin up around the ITCZ and produce fresh to strong winds with seas 8-9 ft near the highest winds tonight through midweek. $$ AReinhart