000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140957 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Nov 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure building into the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure S of Mexico is bringing gale-force winds near 40 kt over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 13 ft. Model guidance indicates that winds remain at least 35 kt through Tue. Swell induced from these winds will reach downstream as far as around 10N103W. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from near the Panama-Costa Rica border at 09N82W to 07N93W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N93W to 07N110W to 11N136W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 97W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 13N between 131W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale. A weak pressure gradient across most of the region is supporting light to gentle variable winds along the Baja California peninsula and SW Mexican offshore waters. Mainly gentle winds also prevail across the Gulf of California. Northwest swell is generating seas in the 4-5 ft range W of the Baja California peninsula, while mixed SW and NW swell supports seas of 4-5 ft across the southern and southwestern offshore waters. Seas in the Gulf of California range between the 1-2 ft. Gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through Tue as high pressure builds in behind a cold front that exited the Gulf of Mexico this morning. Northerly winds of 35 kt will continue through Mon night with 14 ft peak seas. Strong to near gale force winds will then continue Tue through early Tue evening. Strong winds will gradually diminish to moderate by Wed afternoon. A second gap wind event is forecast for Tehuantepec Thu night with possible gale force winds starting Fri morning. Moderate northerly winds are expected in the southern half of the Gulf of California today through Tue. Quiescent conditions are expected elsewhere today and into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh winds are occurring across the Papagayo region with seas 5-6 ft. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough axis. Seas range 4-6 ft across the region. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the morning hours across the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast for the remainder forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the area through midweek. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure remains centered N of the area with a ridge extending south to 22N and west of 120W. The resultant pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 130W. A surface trough is analyzed along 138W, although associated convection has diminished overnight. Fresh winds NE winds are W of the trough. Seas are 7-9 ft near the strongest winds. Moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas across the remainder of the Pacific are 5-8 ft. The winds near the surface trough are forecast to gradually diminish as the trough weakens and moves W of 140W today. Seas will also subside below 8 ft for all areas by Mon morning. $$ KONARIK