000 AXPZ20 KNHC 140347 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Nov 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure building behind a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure S of Mexico is bringing gale-force winds near 40 kt over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to 13 ft. Model guidance indicates that winds will continue to be near 40 kt through tonight with seas to near 14 ft, then become 35 kt by Sun morning through Tue. The N winds of 25-30 kt across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach downstream to 11N on Sun morning with swell propagating downstream to 10N and W to near 103W. Winds are forecast to drop below gale-force Tue morning. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 08N93W. The ITCZ axis extends from 08N93W to 07N110W to 11N132W then continues W of a surface trough beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 97W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 14N and W of 122W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event. A weak pressure gradient across the region is supporting light to gentle variable winds along the Baja California peninsula and SW Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle winds also prevail across the Gulf of California. Northwest swell is generating seas in the 5-6 ft range W of the Baja California peninsula, while mixed SW and NW swell supports seas of 4-5 ft across the southern and southwestern offshore waters. Seas in the Gulf of California range 1-3 ft. Gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through Tue as high pressure builds in behind a cold front sweeping across the Gulf of Mexico. Northerly winds of 40 kt will continue through tonight with seas near 14 ft. Winds will become strong Tue through Wed morning. Moderate northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California on Sun through Tue. Quiescent conditions are expected elsewhere through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to fresh winds are occurring across the Papagayo region with seas 5-6 ft. Light to gentle winds are noted north of the monsoon trough with gentle to moderate winds south of the monsoon trough axis. Seas range 4-6 ft across the region. Showers continue west of the Colombia coast and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Fresh to strong winds will pulse later tonight into Sun morning across the Gulf of Papagayo and become moderate to fresh during the day. This pattern will continue through Tue morning, with moderate to fresh winds prevailing Tue through Thu. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the area through midweek with seas 4-6 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong center of high pressure remains north of the area with a ridge extending south to 24N and west of 111W. The resultant pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 125W. A surface trough is analyzed from 16N133W to 07N137W with scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 200 nm of the trough. Scatterometer data shows fresh to strong winds NE of the trough from 10N to 12N between 130W and 135W. Seas are 8-10 ft near the strongest winds. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas across the remainder of the Pacific are 5-8 ft. The winds near the surface trough along 133W/135W is forecast to to become moderate to fresh by tonight. The trough will continue to drift westward as it moves beyond 140W by Sun. Fresh trades south of about 20N and west of 127W will decrease in coverage by late Sun in response to the trough moving out of the area. This will allow for seas to subside to 8 ft in the tropical waters west of about 138W by Mon morning. $$ Ramos