000 AXPZ20 KNHC 131601 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Nov 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure that will build behind a reinforcing cold front in the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure S of Mexico is bringing gale- force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning with seas to 10 ft. Model guidance indicates that peak winds will be near 40 kt tonight, with seas to near 14 ft. Currently, N winds of 25-30 kt across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach downstream to 12N on Sun morning. Swell generated by this event will propagate downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far S as 10N and W to near 103W on Sun. Winds are forecast to drop below gale- force Tue morning. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W to 07N101W. The ITCZ continues from 07N101W to 07N115W to 10N131W, then continues W of a surface trough from 09N137W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough from 06N to 11N between 89W and 100W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted along the ITCZ from 07N to 14N between 126W to 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for details on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event. A weak pressure gradient across the region is supporting light to gentle variable winds along the Baja California peninsula and SW Mexican offshore waters. Northwest swell is generating seas in the 5-6 ft range W of the Baja California peninsula, while mixed SW and NW swell supports seas of 4-5 ft across the southern and southwestern offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of California with seas 1-3 ft. A surface trough is located SW of Jalisco from 18N107W to 12N108W with isolated thunderstorms near the axis. Gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through Tue. Peak winds will reach 40 kt tonight with seas near 14 ft as high pressure builds in behind a reinforcing cold front sweeping across the SW Gulf of Mexico. Strong winds will continue through Tue night and become moderate to fresh by Wed. Moderate northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of California on Sun through Tue. Quiescent conditions are expected to continue elsewhere through the weekend and into early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Fresh to strong gap winds are pulsing across the Papagayo region with seas 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough with seas 4-5 ft. Thunderstorms are noted off the western coast of Colombia E of 80W. Winds will become moderate to fresh later this afternoon. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse tonight into the early morning hours from Sun to Tue, becoming moderate to fresh during the day. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the rest of the area with seas 4-6 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong center of high pressure remains north of the area with a ridge extending south to 20N and west of 115W. The resultant pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 130W. Fresh to strong winds are possible from 10N to 13N between 130W and 135W associated with the remnants of a former low that opened into a surface trough with seas 8-10 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also occurring near this trough. This system is forecast to move in a general westward motion over the next 24 hours while it weakens. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Elsewhere, seas are in the 8-10 ft range due to mixed northeast and northwest swell across the trade wind belt west 120W. Seas in the 6-8 ft range are elsewhere. Generally, fresh trades are expected south of about 20N and west of 127W today before decreasing in coverage through late Sun as the surface trough mentioned above reaches the far western part of the area. The area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds north of the low will continue through today then diminish to mainly fresh winds late tonight or early on Sun. This will allow for seas to subside to 8 ft in the tropical waters west of about 138W. $$ AReinhart