000 AXPZ20 KNHC 130948 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Nov 13 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure that will build in behind a Gulf of Mexico reinforcing cold front and lower pressure S of Mexico will result in the development of a gale-force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. Model guidance indicates that peak winds will be near 40 kt Sat night, with seas to near 14 ft. Currently, N winds of 25-30 kt across the Gulf of Tehuantepec reach downstream to 12N. Swell generated by this event will propagate downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far S as 10N and W to near 103W on Sun. Winds are forecast to drop below gale-force Tue morning. Please see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N84W to 09N94W. The ITCZ begins near 09N94W and continues along 08N120W to 11N128W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 03N E of 82W, from 06N to 10N between 89W and 103W, from 07N to 10N W of 137W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 15N between 126W and 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected Please see the Special Features section above for details on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event. A weak pressure gradient across the region is supporting light to gentle variable winds along the Baja peninsula and SW Mexican offshore waters. Northwest swell is generating seas in the 5-6 ft range W of the Baja California peninsula, while mixed SW and NW swell supports seas of 4-5 ft across the southern and southwestern offshore waters. Otherwise, moderate northerly winds are funneling along the Gulf of California being supported by surface ridging over the SW CONUS. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. Strong to near gale-force north winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region are expected to reach gale-force Sat morning as high pressure builds in behind a reinforcing cold front that is forecast to sweep across the SW Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to fresh gap winds remain across the Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Winds in the Papagayo region may briefly pulse to strong speeds on Sun. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are south of the monsoon trough with seas in the 4-6 ft range in SW swell. These winds will persist through the forecast period. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong center of high pressure remains north of the area with a ridge extending south to 19N and west of about 120W. The resultant pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ that also includes a 1010 mb low near 10N130W, is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north of the ITCZ to 26N and west of 127W. A tight gradient between the low and the aforementioned ridge is leading to fresh to strong northeast to east winds north of the low to near 14N and between 129W-134W. This low is forecast to move in a general westward motion over the next 24 hours while it weakens, eventually to a trough over the far western part of the area by early Sun. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Elsewhere, seas are in the 8-10 ft range due to mixed northeast and northwest swell across the trade wind belt west 120W. Seas in the 6-8 ft range are elsewhere. The gradient between the aforementioned high pressure ridge and the low pressure will maintain generally fresh trades south of about 24N and west of 127W through Sat afternoon before decreasing in coverage through late Sun as the surface trough mentioned above reaches the far western part of the area. The area of fresh to strong northeast to east winds north of the low will continue through Sat, then diminish to mainly fresh winds late Sat night or early on Sun. This will allow for seas to subside to 8 ft in the tropical waters west of about 138W. $$ Ramos