000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120809
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Nov 12 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure that will build in behind a Gulf of Mexico cold 
front and lower pressure S of Mexico will result in the 
development of a gale-force gap wind event over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec beginning Sat morning. Model guidance indicates that
peak winds will be at about 40 kt late on Sat, with seas to near
12 ft. Swell generated by this event will propagate downstream 
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as
far south as 10N and west to near 103W on Sun. Winds are 
forecast to drop below gale-force Sun into Mon, then increase 
back up to gale-force at similar speeds Mon evening. Please see 
the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 08N84W to 07N93W. The 
ITCZ begins near 07N93W and continues along 07N110W to 09N128W 
then resumes near 10N133W to beyond 09N140W. A surface trough 
extends from 09N128W to 14N126W. Scattered moderate convection 
is associated with the trough from 08N to 16N between 120W and 
130W.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on an 
upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event.

Surface ridging continues to extend to the Baja California Norte
offshore waters, supporting gentle to moderate NW winds to Cabo
San Lazaro and light to gentle variable winds along the S and SW
Mexico offshore waters. NW swell is generating seas in the 5 to 7
ft range W of the Baja peninsula while SW swell is supporting
seas of 4 to 5 ft across the S and SW offshore waters. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh northerly winds are funneling along the Gulf 
of California being supported by a tighter pressure gradient
between the ridge to the west and a surface trough along NW
Mexico. Seas are 3 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California.

Fresh winds offshore of Baja California will gradually diminish 
to gentle through Fri afternoon as high pressure north of the 
area weakens. Fresh north winds inside the Gulf of California 
will diminish to gentle to moderate by Fri evening. Strong to 
near gale-force north winds will return to the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region late tonight into early Fri. These winds are 
expected to reach gale-force Sat afternoon, or possibly sooner 
as high pressure builds in behind another cold front that is 
forecast to sweep across the southern Gulf of Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh gap winds remain across the Papagayo region, 
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. These winds may briefly pulse to strong speeds on Sun. 

Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough 
with seas in the 4-6 ft range in SW swell. These winds will 
persist through the forecast period.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong center of high pressure remains N of the area with a 
ridge extending S to 20N and W of 116W. The resultant pressure 
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of 
the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of the 
ITCZ to 27N and W of 120W. Locally strong winds are possible
associated with a surface trough that extends from 08N126W to 
16N125W, which is supporting scattered showers and tstms from 07N
to 16N between 120W and 130W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail 
south of the ITCZ. Elsewhere, seas are in the 8-10 ft range due 
to mixed NE and NW swell across the trade wind belt west 120W. 
Seas in the 6-8 ft range are elsewhere.

The aforementioned high pressure ridge will remain across the 
northern waters maintaining a zone of fresh trades S of about 
23N and west of 124W through most of Sat. These trades will 
gradually decrease in coverage through the weekend as the surface
trough continue to move westward. As a consequence, seas will 
subside to 8 ft across the trade wind belt, but confined to west 
of 135W by Sun.
 
$$
Ramos