000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu Nov 11 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Colombia near 10N74W to across
southern Panama to 08N90W to low pressure near 06N95W 1011 mb
and to 06N99W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates 
that there is a break until 09N133W, where the ITCZ then resumes
to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is seen within 60 nm north of the ITCZ west of 138W, 
and also within 40 nm south of the ITCZ between 137W-138W.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

A surface ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure that is
centered well to the northwest of Baja California Norte 
southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and a trough over northwest Mexico 
has strengthened in the past 30 hours and is supporting fresh 
northerly winds from the waters of Baja California Norte to 
offshore of Cabo San Lazaro, while moderate winds remain off Baja
California Sur. Moderate to fresh winds are also found over most
of the Gulf of California, strongest through central portions. 
Light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the open 
waters off SW Mexico. Winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec have 
become light and variable along with seas 4-6 ft due to a south 
to southwest swell. Seas of 6-8 ft due to a northwest continue 
west of the Baja California peninsula, and 4-6 ft elsewhere over 
the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range in the 
Gulf of California.

Fresh winds offshore of Baja California will gradually diminish
to moderate through Fri afternoon as the high center begins to 
drift northward. Fresh north winds inside the Gulf of California 
will continue through this afternoon. Strong gap winds will 
return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec region early Fri through late 
Mon, and could reach gale force again Sat evening as high 
pressure builds in behind another cold front that is forecast to 
sweep across the southern Gulf of Mexico.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate to fresh gap winds remain across the Papagayo region, 
with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of the monsoon 
trough. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are south
of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-6 ft due to a southwest swell 
are over the offshore waters.

Gentle to moderate south southwest winds will persist south of 
the monsoon through the forecast period. Winds will weaken across
and downwind of Papagayo today but return to moderate to fresh
beginning on Fri and into early next week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1027 mb high pressure center is analyzed north of the area 
near 35N130W. It has a ridge extending west-southwest to 
30N140W and continuing southwestward well west of 140W. The 
resultant pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure 
within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds north 
of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to near 23N and W of 118W, 
with gentle to moderate winds north of about 25N. Gentle to 
moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. The 
remnant lows of Sandra near 12N134W and Terry near 12N122W are 
accompanied by areas of northeast to east 20-25 kt winds to their
north along with higher seas of 10-12 ft. A trough along 12N 
connects these two low. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection within 180 nm south of 
the trough between 123W-125W, and within 120 nm north of the 
trough between 128W-131W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 120 nm in the SE quadrant of the low pressure near 
12N122W. also within 120 nm north of the trough between 125W-
127W and within 30 nm of 15N124W.

Elsewhere, seas are in the 8-10 ft range due to mixed northeast 
and northwest swell across the trade wind belt west 110W. Seas in
the 6-8 ft range are elsewhere.

The aforementioned high pressure ridge will remain across the 
northern waters maintaining a zone of fresh trades south of 
about 23N and west of 124W through most of Sat. These trades will
gradually decrease in coverage through the weekend as the 
remnant low of Sandra weakens further to a trough and shifts to 
west of 140W, and the remnant low of Terry reaches the far 
western part of the area. As a consequence, seas will subside to 
8 ft across the trade wind belt, but confined to west of 135W by 
Sun.
 
$$
Aguirre