347 AXPZ20 KNHC 110947 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Nov 11 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 07.5N92W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N92W to 06.5N111W to 12N121W to 11N131W to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 77.5W and 80W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 09.5N to 13.5N between 121W and 128W, from 12.5N to 16.5N between 126.5W and 129.5W, and from 08N to 11N W of 133W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13.5N to 21N between 131W and 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO A surface ridge extends from 1028 mb high pressure NW of Baja California Norte southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over NW Mexico has strengthened in the past 24 hours and is supporting fresh northerly winds from the waters of Baja California Norte to offshore of Cabo San Lazaro, while moderate winds persist off Baja California Sur. Moderate to fresh winds are also found over most of the Gulf of California, strongest through central portions. Light to gentle winds prevail over the remainder of the open waters off SW Mexico. Gap Wind continue to diminish across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and are 15 kt or less with seas of 4-5 ft. Seas of 6-9 ft prevail west of the Baja California peninsula, and 4-6 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 3-6 ft range in the Gulf of California. Fresh winds offshore of Baja California will gradually overnight through Thu as the high center begins to drift northward. Fresh N winds inside the Gulf of California will prevail through Thu afternoon. Strong gap winds will return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec region early Fri through Mon, and could reach gale force again Sat evening as another cold front reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to fresh gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate SW to S winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail in SW swell across the offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south of the monsoon through the forecast period. Winds will weaken across and downwind of Papagayo today but return to moderate to fresh Fri through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1028 mb high pressure is centered near 34N131W and extends a ridge WSW through 30N140W. The resultant pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to near 23N and W of 118W, with gentle to moderate winds N of 25N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. The remnants of Sandra, along 131W, and Terry, along 121W, are accompanied by areas of 25 kt winds to their north, and higher seas of 10-12 ft. Elsewhere, seas are in the 8-10 ft range in mixed NW and NE swell across the trade wind belt west 110W. Seas in the 6-8 ft range prevail elsewhere. The high pressure ridge will remain across the northern waters, maintaining a zone of fresh trade winds S of 20N throughout most of the week. The remnants of Sandra and Terry will move westward and along the south side of the trade wind zone to maintain a broad zone of strong trades and seas of 10-12 ft. $$ Stripling