253 
AXPZ20 KNHC 101450
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Nov 10 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1440 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Terry is centered near 11.7N 116.9W at
10/1500 UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with
gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted from 10N TO 16N between 115W AND 120W. Terry 
is expected to continue on a westward track over the few days. 
The current forecast weakens the system to a remnant low late Thu
or Fri. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for 
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 06N100W to 12N116W to
13.5N126W to 12N130W. The ITCZ continues from 12N130W to 09N140W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N
to 07N east of 83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
10N to 15N between 120W and 130W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong to near gale force winds, and seas to 10 ft, prevail over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends W of
the Baja California peninsula. The ridge has begun to build 
toward Baja California Norte, resulting in a tightening pressure 
gradient. Fresh to strong northerly winds are offshore of Baja 
Norte, with moderate to fresh winds extending southward across 
the waters W of Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico as well as over the 
Gulf of California. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range off Baja 
California Norte, and 5-7 ft elsewhere over the open waters off 
Mexico. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range in the Gulf of California.

The strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will 
diminish through late afternoon. Fresh winds offshore of Baja 
California will become fresh to strong today and gradually 
spreading S to offshore of Cabo San Lazaro through this evening. 
Moderate N winds inside the Gulf of California will become fresh 
this afternoon through Thu afternoon. Strong gap winds will 
return to Tehuantepec Fri through Sun.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region, 
with moderate gap winds across the Gulf of Fonseca. Elsewhere 
light to gentle NE winds are N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to 
moderate SW to S winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 
5-6 ft prevail in SW swell across the offshore waters, except 7-8
ft downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo.

Fresh to strong gap winds will continue over the Gulf of 
Papagayo through midday before diminishing through the remainder 
of the week. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south 
of the monsoon through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh gap
winds will return to the Papagayo region over the weekend. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see special features section above for more on T.D. 
Terry.

The pressure gradient between 1027 mb high pressure near 31N130W
and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity
of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of 
the ITCZ and monsoon trough to near 21N and W of 117W, with 
gentle to moderate winds N of 25N. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are in the
7-10 ft range in mixed NW and NE swell over the waters north of 
10N and west 110W, except higher N of the remnants of Sandra,
where seas are 11-12 ft. Seas in the 6-8 ft range prevail 
elsewhere.

The high pressure ridge will remain across the northern waters, 
maintaining a zone of fresh trade winds S of 20N throughout most 
of the week. The remnants of Sandra will move westward through 
the trade wind zone to maintain a broad zone of strong trades 
and seas to 10-11 ft. The expected remnants of Terry will also
produce a smaller but similar area as it moves westward.
 
$$
AL