000 AXPZ20 KNHC 101004 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Nov 10 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Terry is centered near 11.8N 115.6W at 0900 UTC moving W at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N TO 14N between 115W AND 119W.. Terry is expected to continue on a W to WSW track over the next 48 hours. Due to its small size and trajectory near the ITCZ and associated moisture, it is expected to maintain its intensity through Thu morning before weakening to a remnant low late Thu or Fri. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 08.5N87W to 05N95W to 06N104W. The ITCZ extends from 11.5N126W to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted N of 04.5N E of 82W, and from 08.5N to 12.5N W of 130W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 16N between 122W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Strong winds to near 30 kt, and seas to 10 ft, prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec N of 14N. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends W of the Baja California peninsula. The ridge has begun to build toward Baja California Norte, resulting in a tightening pressure gradient. Recent satellite derived wind data showed fresh northerly winds offshore of Baja Norte and moderate to fresh winds extending southward across the waters W of Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the open waters off Mexico as well as over the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range off Baja California Norte, and 5-7 ft elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range in the Gulf of California. The strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will begin to diminish after sunrise, and then weaken to less than 20 kt during the afternoon. Fresh winds off of Baja Norte will become fresh to strong today and gradually spreading S to offshore of Cabo San Lazaro through Wed evening. Moderate N winds inside the Gulf of California will become fresh Wed afternoon through Thu afternoon. Strong gap winds will return to Tehuantepec Fri through Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR The pressure gradient between high pressure over the SE United States, a weakening cold front across the western Caribbean, and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong gap winds across the Papagayo region, and moderate gap winds across the Gulf of Fonseca. Elsewhere light to gentle NE winds are N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate SW to S winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5-6 ft prevail in SW swell across the offshore waters, except 7-8 ft downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo. Fresh to strong winds will continue over the Gulf of Papagayo through midday Wed before diminishing through the remainder of the week. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will persist south of the monsoon through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh gap winds will return to the Papagayo region over the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see special features section above for more on T.D. Terry. The pressure gradient between 1027 mb high pressure near 31N130W and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to near 21N and W of 117W, with gentle to moderate winds N of 25N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range in mixed NW and NE swell over the waters north of 10N and west 110W, except higher N of the remnants of Sandra, where seas are 11-12 ft. Seas in the 6-8 ft range prevail elsewhere. Recent satellite derived winds showed the remnants of Sandra is centered near 13.59N 124.5W WSW at 13 kt. A broad area of NE to E winds 20-25 kt prevails N of Sandra remnants from 13.5N to 19N between 121W and 127W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen across this area from 12N TO 16N between 122W AND 128W. The high pressure ridge will remain across the northern waters, maintaining a zone of fresh trade winds S of 20N throughout most of the week. The remnants of Sandra will move westward through the trade wind zone to maintain a broad zone of strong trades and seas to 10-11 ft. The expected remnants of Terry will also produce a smaller but similar area as it moves westward across the south side of the trade wind zone. $$ Stripling