000 AXPZ20 KNHC 070950 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Nov 7 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is centered near 8.2N 100.5W at 0900 UTC moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak wave heights are estimated at 12 ft within 90 nm NE of the center. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is from 06N TO 10N between 94W AND 103W. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours or so as the system moves generally WNW, with slight strengthening to tropical storm strength near 9.3N 107.1W expected around midday Mon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico and T.D. 18-E SW of Tehuantepec is supporting gale force gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This gale force gap wind event is expected to last through the weekend, with peak winds of around 35 kt and seas forecast to reach a maximum of around 12 ft. Winds are expected to diminish just below gale force early Mon morning and persist through Tue evening before gradually diminishing through Thu. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located near 13N 112W. Only a small increase in organization will likely lead to the formation of a short-lived tropical depression tomorrow as the system moves WNW at 5 to 10 kt. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for further development by early next week. There is a high probability of tropical cyclogenesis within the next 2 days. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10.5N83W to T.D. Eighteen-E near 8.2N 100W to low pres near 13N 112W to low pres near 11.5N121W to 09N129W. The ITCZ continues from 09N129W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the system in the special features section above, scattered moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 11N E of 89W, and from 10N to 15N between 118W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for details on the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event as well as information on TD 18-E. Elsewhere, a weak surface ridge extends SE to the W of Baja California Sur. A weak pressure gradient across the region is supporting light to gentle northerly winds across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula, inside the Gulf of California and across the SW Mexico offshore waters. Seas are in the 6-9 ft range in NW swell, except for 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. Gale conditions will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun night, and then return briefly Mon night. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will persist across the offshore waters of Baja through the weekend then become moderate to fresh Tue through Wed. Light to gentle winds will continue across the Gulf of California through Tue night before freshening late Wed through Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Please see the Special Features section above for more on T.D. 18-E. Outside of winds and seas associated with the tropical depression, light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail in SW swell across the discussion waters. The depression is expected to continue on a WNW track, shifting well west of the forecast waters today. Elsewhere, winds will pulse from fresh to strong over the Gulf of Papagayo each night for the next several days. Gentle to moderate SW winds will persist S of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see special features section above for more on T.D. 18-E and the potential for tropical cyclogenesis associated with a low near 13N 112W. The pressure gradient between high pressure across the northern waters and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to near 24N and W of 124W, with gentle to moderate winds N of 24N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range in mixed NW and S swell over the waters north of 10N and west 115W. Seas in the 6-8 ft range prevail elsewhere. The NW swell will gradually decay through the weekend. A cold front will move near the far NW waters on Mon, preceded by fresh SW to W winds and seas to near 9 ft. $$ Stripling