000 AXPZ20 KNHC 061556 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Nov 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is centered near 8.4N 96.6W at 06/1500 UTC moving W at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak wave heights are estimated at 11 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N TO 12N between 91W and 99W. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by slight strengthening by early next week. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP3.shtml for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure building southward from the Gulf of Mexico into southeastern Mexico and a tropical cyclone south of Tehuantepec is supporting gale force gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This gale force gap wind event is expected to last through the weekend, with peak winds of around 35 kt and seas forecast to reach a maximum of around 12 ft. Winds are expected to diminish each afternoon just below gale force beginning Sun but return to minimal gale force overnight through Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula near 13.3N 110.3W. While earlier satellite wind data indicated that the circulation was still elongated, only a small increase in organization will likely lead to the formation of a short-lived tropical depression later today as the system moves WNW. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for further development by late Sunday into early next week. There is a high probability of tropical cyclogenesis within the next 5 days. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N76W to 10N90W then resumes W of TD 18-E near 12N104W to 10N130W. The ITCZ continues from 10N130W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the system in the speacial features and TD 18-E, scattered moderate convection is N of 03N E of 80W, from 07N to 16N between 111W and 119W, and from 04N to 10N W of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for details on the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event as well as information on T.D. 18-E. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1023 mb previously centered near 32N128W has collapsed, leaving a weakening associated ridge extending southeastward to the W of Baja California, to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a surface trough over NW Mexico is supporting gentle northerly winds across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula, as well as inside the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft ft range west of Baja California, and 5-7 ft over the remainder of open waters off Mexico. Seas are 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Gale conditions will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun night, and then return briefly each night through Tue. Gentle to moderate northerly winds will persist across the offshore waters of Baja through the weekend. Light to gentle winds will continue across the Gulf of California through Wed morning before freshening late Wed through Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Please see the Special Features section above for more on T.D. 18-E. Outside of winds and seas associated with the depression, light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail in SW swell across the discussion waters. The depression is expected to continue on a westward track, shifting west of the forecast waters today. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Papagayo each night starting tonight. Gentle to moderate southwest winds will persist south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see special features section above for more on T.D. 18-E and the potential for tropical cyclogenesis. High pressure of 1023 mb previously centered near 32N128W has collapsed. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to near 23N, with gentle to moderate winds north of 23N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range in mixed NW and S swell over the waters north of 10N and west 115W. Seas in the 6-8 ft range prevail elsewhere. The northwest swell will gradually decay through the weekend. A cold front will brush the far northwest waters on Sun preceded by fresh southwest to west winds and seas to near 9 ft. $$ Ramos