844 AXPZ20 KNHC 060339 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Nov 6 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is centered near 8.9N 94.5W AT 0300 UTC moving W OR 260 DEG AT 10 KT. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N TO 11N between 92W AND 101W. The system is forecast to continue on a westward track with little change in intensity the next few days, possible strengthening to a minimal tropical storm Mon morning near 105W. Please refer to the latest forecast advisory on TD 18-E at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure building southward from the Gulf of Mexico into southeastern Mexico and a tropical cyclone south of Tehuantepec is supporting gale force gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This gale force gap wind event is expected to last into early next week, with peak winds of 35-40 kt and seas forecast to reach a maximum of around 12 ft. Winds are expected to diminish each afternoon just below gale force beginning Mon but return to gale force overnight. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. Showers and thunderstorms remain concentrated with an area of low pressure located near 13N109.5W, or several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. In addition, afternoon satellite wind data indicated that the circulation is gradually becoming better defined and is producing winds of 30 kt. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for additional development and a tropical depression is now likely to form by this weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph. Environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development by early next week. There is a high probability of tropical cyclogenesis. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 09.5N89W, then resumes from 09N97W to low pres 1007 mb near 13N109.5W to low pres 1008 mb near 11N117W to 09N128W. The ITCZ continues from 09N128W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 114W and 122W, and from 06.5N to 09.5N W of 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for details on the latest Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event as well as information on T.D. 18-E. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1023 mb is centered near 32N128W with an associated ridge extending southeastward to the W of Baja California, to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a surface trough over NW Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds across the waters west of the Baja California peninsula, as well as inside the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-9 ft ft range west of Baja California, and 5-7 ft over the remainder of open waters off Mexico. Seas are 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Gale conditions will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Tue. Moderate to fresh northwest winds offshore of Baja California will diminish to gentle to moderate into the weekend. Light to gentle winds will continue across the Gulf of California through Wed morning before freshening late Wed through Thu. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Please see the Special Features section above for more on T.D. 18-E. Outside of winds and seas associated with the depression, light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail in SW swell across the discussion waters. The depression is expected to continue on a westward track, shifting west of the forecast waters Sat. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Papagayo each night starting Sat night. Gentle to moderate southwest winds will persist south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see special features section above for more on T.D. 18-E and the potential for tropical cyclogenesis. High pressure of 1023 mb is centered near 32N128W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to near 23N, with gentle to moderate winds north of 23N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range in mixed NW and S swell over the waters north of 10N and west 115W. Seas in the 6-8 ft range prevail elsewhere. The northwest swell will gradually decay through the weekend. A cold front will brush the far northwest waters on Sun preceded by fresh southwest to west winds and seas to near 9 ft. $$ Stripling