000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050953 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Nov 5 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0910 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is centered near 09.7N 91.7W at 0900 UTC moving W at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Maximum seas are near 10 ft. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N TO 13.5N between 90W AND 95W. The system is forecast to continue on a westward track while slowly intensifying Sat through the next several days, becoming a tropical storm just outside of the offshore waters of Guatemala midday Sat. Please refer to the latest forecast advisory on TD 18-E at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure that will build southward from the Gulf of Mexico toward southeastern Mexico and an intensifying tropical cyclone south of Guatemala is forecast to initiate a gale force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning this morning. This event is expected to last into next week, with peak winds of 35-40 kt and seas forecast to reach a maximum of around 12 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. There is a medium probability of tropical cyclogenesis. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74W to 09N85W to T.D. Eighteen-E near 09.7N 91.7W to low pres 1009 mb near 12N107.5W to low pres 1010 mb near 11N116W to 08N125W. The ITCZ continues from 08N125W to beyond 08.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 15.5N between 110W and 125W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for details on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event as well as information on T.D. 18-E. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 32N132W with an associated ridge extending southeastward to the W of Baja California, to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a surface trough over NW Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds west of the Baja California peninsula, as well as inside the Gulf of California. Strong north to northeast winds to 30 kt are funneling through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas 7-9 ft are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 6-8 ft west of Baja California, and 5-7 ft over the remainder of open waters off Mexico. Seas are 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. The strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap winds will increase to gale force by sunrise this morning and generally persist through Mon. Moderate to fresh northwest winds offshore of Baja California will continue through Fri. Light to gentle winds will continue across the Gulf of California through the period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Please see the Special Features section above for more on T.D. 18-E. Outside of winds and seas associated with the depression, light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail across the discussion waters. The depression is forecast to reach tropical storm intensity by midday Sat, and will move west of the offshore waters off Central America Sunday. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Papagayo each night starting Sat night. Gentle to moderate southwest winds will persist south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see special features section above for more on T.D. 18-E and the potential for tropical cyclogenesis. High pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 32N132W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to near 23N, with gentle to moderate winds north of 23N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range in mixed NW and S swell over the waters north of 10N and west 115W. Seas in the 6-7 ft range prevail elsewhere. The northwest swell will spread southeastward maintaining seas 8 ft or greater over much of the waters north of 08N and west of 112W through Fri night Fri before it gradually decays through the weekend. A cold front will brush the far northwest waters on Sun preceded by fresh southwest to west winds and seas to near 9 ft. $$ Stripling