000 AXPZ20 KNHC 042112 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Nov 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is centered near 9.6N 90.5W at 04/2100 UTC moving WNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Please read the latest. Maximum seas are near 10 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm northeast quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 07N to 12N between 88W and 95W. The system is forecast to continue on a westward track while slowly intensifying for the next several days. The current forecast has the depression intensifying to tropical storm strength on Fri. Please refer to the latest forecast advisory on TD 18-E at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure that will build southward from the Gulf of Mexico toward southeastern Mexico and an intensifying tropical cyclone south of Mexico is forecast to initiate a gale force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning on Fri morning. This event is expected to last into next week, with peak winds of 35 kt and seas forecast to reach a maximum of around 12 ft. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend or early next week while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at around 5 kt. There is a medium probability of tropical cyclogenesis. Please see the latest eastern north Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N91W to 12N107W to 08N122W. The ITCZ continues from 08N122W to 07N127W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 17N between 95W and 118W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 133W and 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO Please see the Special Features section above for details on an upcoming Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event as well as information on TD 18-E. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 32N135W with an associated ridge extending southeastward west of Baja California. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a surface trough over the Gulf of California is supporting is supporting gentle to moderate winds west of the Baja California peninsula as well as over the Gulf of California. Strong north to northeast winds are funneling through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas up 8 ft are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 5-7 ft west of Baja California, and 4-6 ft over the remainder of open waters off Mexico. Seas are 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. The strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap winds will increase to near gale force late tonight, then reach gale force Fri morning through Mon. Moderate to fresh northwest winds offshore of Baja California will continue through Fri. Light to gentle winds will continue across the Gulf of California through the period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Please see the Special Features section above for more on TD 18-E. Outside of winds and seas associated to the depression, light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5-6 ft prevail across the discussion waters. The depression is forecast to reach tropical storm intensity on Fri, and will move west of the offshore waters off Central America Sunday. Elsewhere, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the Gulf of Papagayo each night starting Sat night. Gentle to moderate southwest winds will persist south of the monsoon trough. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see special features section above for more on TD 18-E and the potential for tropical cyclogenesis. High pressure of 1026 mb is centered near 32N135W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to near 20N, with gentle to moderate winds north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the waters north of 10N and west 115W. Seas in the 5-7 ft range prevail elsewhere. The northwest swell will spread southeastward maintaining seas 8 ft or greater over much of the waters north of 09N and west of a line from 30N116W to 14N122W and to 09N140W through Fri before it gradually decays through the weekend. A cold front may brush the far northwest waters on Sun preceded by fresh southwest to west winds and seas to near 9 ft. $$ AL