000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040405
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Nov 04 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Low pressure of 1007 mb located over the far eastern Pacific 
west of Costa Rica near 09N88W continues to show signs of 
organization. Latest satellite imagery shows numerous moderate
to strong convection within 90 nm of the center in the SE
quadrant and within 60 nm of the center in the SW quadrant.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
120 nm of the center in the SE quadrant and within 30 nm of
08N91W. Atmospheric conditions are expected to remain conducive 
for additional development of this low pressure system, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two 
while the system moves generally westward away from the coast of 
Central America. This system has a high chance of becoming a 
tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please refer to
the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov 
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1010 mb 
near the coast of Colombia at 11N76W to across central Costa
Rica and to low pressure near 09N88W 1007 mb to 10N95W to 
low pressure near 11N104W 1009 mb to low pressure near 12N114W
1009 mb and to 08N125W. The ITCZ extends from 08N125W to 
08N130W to low pressure near 09N140W 1010 mb. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 11N to 
15N between 104W-109W, and within 60 nm of the trough 
between 100W-104W. Scattered moderate convection is within 
120 nm south of the trough between 109W-114W, and within
60 nm south of the trough between 87W-90W, and also between 
97W-99W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure of 1023 mb is centered near 29N129W with an 
associated ridge extending southeastward west of Baja 
California. The pressure gradient between this area of high 
pressure and a surface trough over the Gulf of California is 
supporting is supporting gentle to moderate winds west of the 
Baja California peninsula as well as over the Gulf of California.
Strong north to northeast winds are funneling through the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are
in the 8-9 ft range over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 6-8 ft west of
Baja California, and 4-6 ft over the remainder of open waters 
off Mexico. Seas are 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. 

The strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap winds will increase to near 
gale force late Thu night, then reach gale force Fri night 
through Mon. Moderate to fresh northwest winds offshore of Baja 
California will continue through Fri. Light to gentle winds will 
continue across the Gulf of California through the period. 

Low pressure of 1007 mb located well southeast of the forecast 
waters near 09N88W is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone 
during the next couple of days and move westward well to the 
southeast or south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late this 
week into this weekend. It is expected to bring increasing winds 
and seas to the offshore waters downwind of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Please see the Special Features section above for more on the 
potential for tropical cyclone development. Fresh to strong winds
and seas to 8 ft are noted around the low, which is centered 
near 09N88W.

Outside of winds and seas associated to the low pressure system,
light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. 
Seas of 5-6 ft prevail across the discussion waters. 

Moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo 
through Thu, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southwest winds will persist 
south of the monsoon trough through Thu. Low pressure southwest 
of the Papagayo region will move generally westward through the 
period. It is likely to form into a tropical depression during 
the next couple of days well to the south or southeast of the 
coast of southeastern Mexico. Expect scattered to numerous 
showers and thunderstorms over the offshore waters of Costa Rica 
and Panama through Thu. South- southwest swell will continue over
the forecast waters through the next few days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1023 mb is centered over the northern waters 
near 29N129W. Light to gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of
the high center. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere over the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the waters north of 
10N and west 115W, reaching near 12 ft over the NW waters,
except higher seas to 16 ft north of 27N and west of 138W as 
were highlighted by the latest altimeter data pass over that 
part of the area as a large set of NW swell propagates into the 
area. Seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail elsewhere. 

The northwest swell will spread southeastward maintaining 
seas 8 ft or greater over much of the waters north of 10N and 
west of 115W through Fri.
 
$$
Aguirre