000 AXPZ20 KNHC 031954 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Nov 3 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure located over the far eastern Pacific a couple of hundred miles southwest of Costa Rica continues to become better defined. Shower and thunderstorm activity is also showing signs of organization. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two as the system moves slowly westward to west- northwestward away from the coast of Central America. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of Costa Rica through today, which could result in flooding and mudslides. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details, and consult products from your local meteorological offices. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N112W to 08N127W. The ITCZ continues from 08N127W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 84W and 86W, and from 08N to 17N between 101W and 115W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO High pressure of 1025 mb is centered near 30N124W with associated ridge extending SE west of Baja California. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a surface trough over the Gulf of California is supporting is supporting gentle to moderate winds west of the Baja California peninsula as well as over the Gulf of California. Strong to near gale force winds are funneling through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 7-8 ft west of Baja California, and 4-6 ft over the remainder of open waters off Mexico. Seas are 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Strong to near gale-force gap winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through much of the period, reaching gale conditions Fri night through Mon. Moderate to fresh northwest winds offshore of Baja California will continue through Fri. Light to gentle winds will continue across the Gulf of California through the period. Low pressure southwest of the Papagayo region will drift westward through the period. The low could develop into a tropical cyclone well to the S or SE of the coast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late this week or this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Please see special features above for more on the potential for tropical cyclone development. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft are noted around the low, which is centered near 09N87.5W. Outside of winds and seas associated to the low pressure system, light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5-6 ft prevail across the discussion waters. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo through Thu, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southwest winds will persist south of the monsoon trough through Thu. Low pressure southwest of the Papagayo region will drift westward through the period. A tropical depression could form well south or southeast of the coast of southeastern Mexico late this week or this weekend. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama through Thu. South- southwest swell will continue over the forecast waters through the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1025 mb is centered over the northern waters near 30N124W. Light to gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of the high center. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds elsewhere over the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the waters N of 10N and W of 115W, reaching near 11 ft over the NW waters as a new set of NW swell propagates into the area. Seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail elsewhere. The northwest swell will peak near 12 ft over the far NW part of the discussion area tonight. This swell will spread and maintain seas 8 ft or greater over much of the waters north of 10N and west of 115W through Fri. $$ AL