000
AXPZ20 KNHC 031457
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Nov 3 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A low pressure system located over the far eastern Pacific more than 
100 miles southwest of Costa Rica is gradually becoming better 
defined. Shower and thunderstorm activity is also beginning to show 
signs of organization, and environmental conditions are expected to 
be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the 
next couple of days. The system is forecast to move slowly westward 
to west-northwestward away from the coast of Central America during 
the next several days. Regardless of development, this disturbance 
is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of 
Costa Rica through today, which could result in flooding and 
mudslides. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details, and consult products from 
your local meteorological offices.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N112W to 08N127W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N127W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 84W
and 86W, and from 08N to 17N between 101W and 115W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure of 1023 mb is centered near 30N124W with 
associated ridge extending SE west of Baja California. The 
pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a 
surface trough over the Gulf of California is supporting is 
supporting gentle to moderate winds west of the Baja California 
peninsula. Strong to near gale force winds are funneling through 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are in the 8-9 ft range over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 7-8 ft
west of Baja California Norte, and 4-6 ft over the remainder of 
open waters off Mexico. Seas are 1-3 ft over the Gulf of 
California. 

Strong to near gale-force gap winds will continue across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec region through much of the period, reaching 
gale conditions Fri night through Sun. Moderate to fresh 
northwest winds offshore of Baja California will continue through
Fri. Light to gentle winds will continue across the Gulf of 
California through the period. 

Low pressure south of the Papagayo region will drift westward 
through the period. The low could develop into a tropical 
depression well to the S or SE of the coast of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region late this week or this weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Please see special features above for more on the potential for
tropical cyclone development.

Elsewhere, fresh to strong gap winds are noted over the Gulf of 
Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the 
monsoon trough. Seas of 5-6 ft prevail across the discussion 
waters. 

Moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo 
through Thu, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southwest winds will persist 
south of the monsoon trough through Thu. Low pressure south of 
the Papagayo region will drift westward through the period. A 
tropical depression could form well south or southeast of the 
coast of southeastern Mexico late this week or this weekend. 
Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the 
offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama through Thu. South- 
southwest swell will continue over the forecast waters through 
the next few days. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1023 mb is centered over the northern waters 
near 30N124W. Light to gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of
the high center. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere over the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range N of 11N and W of 115W,
reaching near 10 ft over the NW waters as a new set of NW swell 
propagates into the area. Seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail 
elsewhere. 

The northwest swell will peak near 12 ft over the far NW part of
the discussion area tonight. This swell will spread seas 8 ft or
greater over much of the waters north of 10N and west of 115W 
Fri.
 
$$
AL