000 AXPZ20 KNHC 030956 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Nov 03 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Locally Heavy Rainfall is possible across portions of Central America: A moist and unstable atmosphere already in place over most of Central America along with enhanced moist monsoon flow south of a 1009 mb low that is centered along the monsoon trough near 09N86W is supporting scattered moderate to isolated strong convection offshore Costa Rica from 07N to 09N between 84W-90W. This system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama through Wed, which could result in flooding and mudslides. By late Thu, the system is forecast to move further into the eastern Pacific and away from Central America. Please consult products from your local meteorological offices for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia near 11N75W to low pressure near 09N86W 1009 mb to 11N93W to low pressure near 12N112W 1010 mb to 08N123W and to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm north of the trough between 98W-104W and within 120 nm south of the trough between 84W-90W and between 104W-110W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough between 100W-103W, and within 60 nm south of the trough between 110W- 113W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO High pressure of 1023 mb is centered near 30N124W with associated ridge extending SE west of Baja California. The pressure gradient between this are of high pressure and a surface trough over the Gulf of California is supporting is supporting gentle to moderate winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Strong to near gale force winds are funneling through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 4-6 ft over the remainder of open waters off Mexico. Seas are 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Strong to near gale-force gap winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through much of the period, reaching gale conditions Fri night through Sun night. Moderate to fresh northwest winds offshore of Baja California will continue through Fri. Light to gentle winds will continue across the Gulf of California through the period. Low pressure south of the Papagayo region will drift westward through the period. The low could develop into a tropical depression well to the S or SE of the coast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region late this week or this weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate to fresh gap winds are noted over the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5-6 ft prevail across the discussion waters. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish some today, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southwest winds will persist south of the monsoon trough through Thu. Low pressure south of the Papagayo region will drift westward through the period. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this low, and a tropical depression could form well S or SE of the coast of southeastern Mexico late this week or this weekend. As the low pulls off farther away from Central America, winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will diminish further to gentle to moderate speeds through Sat, then pulse to fresh speeds Sat night and Sun night. Otherwise, south-southwest swell will continue over the forecast waters through the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1024 mb is centered over the northern waters near 30N124W. Light to gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of the high center. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds elsewhere over the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the NW waters as NW swell propagates into the area. Seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail elsewhere. The northwest swell will spread SE while slowly subsiding the next couple of days. A larger set of northwest swell will reach the far NW part of the late tonight. Seas associated to this swell will peak near 12 ft over the far NW part of the discussion area tonight. This swell will spread seas 8 ft or greater over much of the waters north of 10N and west of 115W Fri. $$ Aguirre