000
AXPZ20 KNHC 022040
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Nov 2 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Locally Heavy Rainfall is possible across portions of Central 
America: A moist and unstable atmosphere already in place over 
most of Central America along with moist monsoon flow south of 
the monsoon trough is supporting scattered showers and 
thunderstorms over some areas of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and 
Panama, including the respective offshore waters. In addition, 
low pressure just west of Costa Rica is helping to enhance shower
and thunderstorm activity over and along the west coasts of 
Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. This disturbance will produce 
locally heavy rainfall across portions of southern Nicaragua, 
Costa Rica, and Panama through tonight, which could result in 
flooding and mudslides. By Wed, the system is forecast to move 
further into the eastern Pacific and away from Central America. 
Please consult products from your local meteorological offices 
for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 10N100W to 12N110W to 
08N120W. The ITCZ continues from 08N120W to 07N126W to 10N132W 
to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 05N to 11N E of 89W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 06N to 17N between 96W and 106W, and from 10N to 18N
between 106W and 116W.
 
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure of 1024 mb is centered near 29N122W with 
associated ridge extending SE west of Baja California. The 
pressure gradient between this are of high pressure and a surface
trough over the Gulf of California is supporting is supporting 
gentle to moderate winds west of the Baja California peninsula. 
Strong to near gale force winds are funneling through the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 
in the 8-9 ft range over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 4-6 ft over 
the remainder of open waters off Mexico. Seas are 1-3 ft over the
Gulf of California. 

Strong to near gale-force gap winds will continue across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec region through much of the period, reaching 
gale conditions Fri night through Sun. Northwest winds offshore 
of Baja California will increase to moderate to fresh this 
evening and continue through Fri. Light to gentle winds will 
continue across the Gulf of California through the period. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Updated

Moderate to fresh gap winds are noted over the Gulf of Papagayo.
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. 
Seas of 5-6 ft prevail across the discussion waters. 

Moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo 
through Thu, with light to gentle winds elsewhere north of the 
monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate southwest winds will persist 
south of the monsoon trough through Thu. Low pressure south of 
the Papagayo region will drift westward through the period. 
South- southwest swell will continue over the forecast waters 
through the next few days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1024 mb is centered over the northern waters 
near 29N122W. Light to gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of
the high center. The pressure gradient between this area of high
pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds 
elsewhere over the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range over the NW waters as NW swell
propagates into the area. Seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail 
elsewhere. 

The northwest swell will spread SE while slowly subsiding the
next couple of days. A larger set of NW swell will reach the NW 
waters tonight. Seas associated to this swell will peak near 13 
ft over the far NW part of the discussion area Wed night. This 
swell will spread seas 8 ft or greater over much of the waters 
north of 10N and west of 115W Fri.
 
$$
AL