000 AXPZ20 KNHC 021509 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Nov 2 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Locally Heavy Rainfall expected across portions of Central America: A moist and unstable atmosphere already in place over most of Central America along with moist southwest winds south of the monsoon trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over some areas of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama, including the respective offshore waters. In addition, low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea just offshore northern coast of Panama is helping to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over and along the east coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. This low is expected to move westward over Central America today, and significant tropical development is unlikely due to its interaction with land. However, this disturbance will still produce locally heavy rainfall across portions of southern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama through today, which could result in flooding and mudslides. By Wed, the system is forecast to move into the eastern Pacific. Please consult products from your local meteorological offices for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 11N93W to 12N110W to 07N120W. The ITCZ continues from 07N120W to 07N126W to 09N131W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 80W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 17N between 96W and 114W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO High pressure of 1024 mb is centered west of the area near 29N123W with associated ridge extending SE west of Baja California. The pressure gradient between this are of high pressure and a surface trough over the Gulf of California is supporting is supporting gentle to moderate winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Strong to near gale force winds are funneling through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range over the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 4-6 ft over the remainder of open waters off Mexico. Seas are 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Strong to near gale-force gap winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through the period, reaching gale conditions Fri night through Sat night. Northwest winds offshore of Baja California will increase to moderate to fresh this evening and continue through Fri night. Light to gentle winds will continue across the Gulf of California through the period. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Updated Fresh to strong gap winds are noted over the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough. Seas of 5-6 ft prevail across the discussion waters. Gentle to moderate southwest winds will persist south of the monsoon trough through late Wed, with light to gentle variable winds north of the monsoon trough through the period. The exception will be northeast gap winds pulsing to fresh offshore across the Papagayo region each night through Wed. Low pressure is expected to develop south of the Papagayo region late Tue into Wed, and drift westward through the period. South-southwest swell will continue over the forecast waters through the next few days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1024 mb is centered over the northern waters near 29N123W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting gentle to moderate winds over the waters north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas are in the 8-10 ft range over the NW waters as NW swell propagates into the area. Seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail elsewhere. The northwest swell will spread seas of greater than 8 ft into the area to north of 14N and to the west of a line from near 30N128W to 18N131W and to 10N140W by early on Thu. $$ AL